The Hightower Report

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Clearly a number of challenging issues are facing physical commodities in the early trading hours of the new trading week. In addition to concerns of European slowing, off the lingering Ash cloud, the markets are also seeing renewed concerns toward Greece debt as spreads between Greek debt and German debt have reached back out to near record levels. The addition of US legal action from late last week against a major US financial player has generated an added layer of pessimism for most physical commodity markets like gold and silver. With global equity markets under pressure again this morning that seems to have added to the widespread negative attitude in the marketplace. In looking forward, the trade will probably not give that much attention to the Conference Board leading indicators report this morning even if that report shows a minimal improvement. Similarly the markets might not pay that much attention to several key US corporate earnings reports scheduled for release later today. In short, given all the distractions facing the markets this morning, it is possible that potentially favorable earnings news from the US financial sector this morning could be simply lost in the shuffle.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The gold market is seemingly facing a negative tilt for most physical commodity markets this morning and given residual weakness in equities and bearish action from the currency markets overnight, the bear camp seems to have a number of arguments in their court in the early action today. Some players have even suggested that lingering slowing concerns off the air travel shut down in Europe is adding into the negative tilt in the marketplace today. Apparently risk appetites are also being pared in the face of recent developments and that is thought to pressuring some physical commodity longs. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 13th for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 247,279 contracts, an increase of 23,427 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 292,244 contracts, an increase of 24,396 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 44,965 contracts, an increase of 969 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 292,244 contracts. This represents an increase of 24,396 contracts in the net long position held by these traders. Comex Gold Stocks were 10.092 million ounces down 2,028 ounces at the end of last week.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The silver market in the early action today appears to be acting like a classic physical commodity facing a large wave of economic uncertainty. While the market was expected to face lingering concerns off the legal troubles on Wall Street, the market might not have expected that situation to be showing signs of extending to the international realm today but comments from UK officials overnight seem to have fostered those type of concerns. While the Volcanic ash situation continues to contribute to fears of European slowing, the silver trade is also taking note of rather wide spreads on Greek debt into the US early Monday trade action. While this market hasn’t paid much attention to classic supply side supply stories lately, the threat of lost supply out of Peru from last week was moderated overnight with the news of a potential end of a labor situation in that country. With equities trading weaker, the Euro weak and the overall outlook for growth suspect in the current environment, the bear camp in silver is probably feeling confident. However, the bull camp in silver is hopeful that favorable US corporate earnings and a potentially positive Conference Board leaders report later this morning can effectively alter sentiment. Comex Silver Stocks were 115.599 million ounces up 12,733 ounces at the end of last week. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of April 13th for Silver showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 40,798 contracts, an increase of 2,415 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 58,235 contracts, an increase of 4,141 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 17,437 contracts, an increase of 1,726 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 58,235 contracts. This represents an increase of 4,141 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

PLATINUM: With a fresh range down failure on the charts this morning and a long list of negative outside market elements in place this morning, the bear camp would appear to be in full control. In fact, with the “combined” spec and fund net long position in platinum hitting a new record level at 28,327 contracts early last week that would seem to leave the market fully vulnerable to even more downside work directly ahead. Initial downside targeting is seen at $1,672 but that support level will mean nothing if the trade starts to toss around the idea of fund liquidation among the firms charged with violations. In the end, we see a possible downside target of $1,645 basis the July platinum contract.

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: There appears to be ongoing Greek Debt concerns again this morning and perhaps some weakness in gold and silver prices because of this morning’s global equity market action. However, the ECB decided to leave to leave interest rates unchanged and that would suggest that the weakness in equities and precious metals markets is perhaps the result of something other than rate hike fears. With Greek credit spreads rising sharply this morning and the equity markets in that country opening and trading 5% lower, it would certainly seem like the Greek debt concerns are serving to undermine a host of physical commodity markets. Not surprisingly the market gave little attention to favorable UK Manufacturing readings or to a rise in UK Halifax home prices overnight. In other words, the markets seem to be content to embrace a negative global macro economic view this morning and that in turn has seemingly provided the Euro with a fresh downside push in the early Thursday US trade. In looking forward, the US will present initial and ongoing claims data, a 30 auction result and a Foreign Central Bank holdings report late in the day today. The market will also see a series of private chain store sales readings early this morning and while that data isn’t typically considered first tier, there are some traders expecting those figures to show noted forward progress on the US recovery effort.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Apparently the gold market wasn’t that interested in the news of another decline in South African gold and non gold metal production for the month of February. With February year over year gold production dropping by more than 9% in the latest monthly figures, one might have expected gold prices to have garnered some support but instead the gold market this morning seems to be focused on the demand side of the equation. The market also didn’t seem to be that concerned about potential gold production setbacks in Kyrgyzstan that could result from a political power shift. Some players suggest that gold was simply overdone at the highs yesterday and with a slight resumption of Greece concerns and a higher US Dollar today, it is possible that a number of longs have decided to bank profits. The bear camp wants to suggest that rising Greek credit costs are set to revive the upside tilt in the Dollar, while the bull camp in gold is pulling for something favorable from either the US claims data or from the private US chain store sales figures.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Typically silver might have been able to garner some spillover support from news of declining South African gold production overnight but as in the gold market, the silver trade doesn’t appear to be that interested in classic supply side developments. Furthermore, silver exchange stocks for April 6th were 116.343 million ounces, down 107,168 ounces, but again the silver market doesn’t seem to be capable of benefiting from minimal supply side issues. With the silver market recently paying a lot of attention to physical demand issues and the market also seemingly tracking both copper and platinum prices, it is possible that part of the early weakness in silver prices this morning, is mostly the result of outside market action. Traders are also suggesting that weaker equities and a higher US Dollar are serving to initially pressure silver prices.

PLATINUM: Clearly the platinum market was overbought into the prior sessions high and perhaps in need of some technical back and fill action on the charts. In addition to a slight downshift of global macro economic optimism, the platinum market also seems to be under some pressure because of a rising Dollar and renewed Greek debt concerns. In retrospect, some platinum buyers were pulled into the market early this week, because of fears that platinum production in South Africa could be disrupted because of power related issues ahead and that won’t be a supply side problem that is easily removed from the equation. In the near term, the path of least resistance is pointing downward with a near term corrective target of $1,701.

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: Asian and Indian gold prices were flat this morning following a strong day highlighted by a strong forecast for Chinese annual growth. Bullion demand is expected to remain buoyant with prospects for a surge in Chinese growth and anticipated Indian demand during the post-Easter wedding season the focus. The dollar is moderately lower this morning, with end of the quarter profit taking cited and the EU/Greece debt problem easing for a moment with Greece raising funds through the sale of debt. Data was mixed overnight with Japanese February industrial production falling 0.9 percent, however, the accompanying survey indicated output will rise in March. Japanese household spending fell 0.5 percent in February against a forecast for a 1.5 percent rise. Investor demand for gold was apparent on Monday, with the SPDR Gold Trust holdings up 5.176 tonnes, totaling 1,129.823 tonnes. This is the highest level of holdings for 2010 and very near the June 1, 2009 record high of 1,134.03 tonnes. The dollar will likely be a heavy influence on gold today with the June dollar index flirting with key settlement support at 81.345. Focus will shift to U.S. economic data, with Consumer Sentiment expected to rise to 50.0 this morning.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The forecast for a near term surge in Chinese growth, a softer dollar as the EU/Greece debt crisis moves to the 2nd page for a moment and the forecast for Chinese gold demand to double in the next decade could keep gold well supported on pullbacks. The Indian wedding season is a positive as post-Easter Christian marriages are expected to firm demand, and renewed interest in the Spider Gold Trust could trigger more U.S. investor demand as gold captures headlines.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Silver is a bit more focused on the health of the U.S. economy. Expect silver to trade closely with today’s U.S. equity market. The focus for silver traders will be the 9:00 AM cdt release of Consumer Sentiment. Traders are looking for a reading of 50.0, up 4 points from the previous month. Japanese data was mixed and did not offer overnight direction.

PLATINUM: The platinum market is sensitive to Chinese growth and currently is in a strong position to challenge higher levels following the government think tank forecast for higher than expected GDP. Global equity markets will be closely monitored by the platinum trade, but the bull camp is in control of this market and the prospects for new highs will become a reality if U.S. economic data is strong this week. The market is also benefiting from a weaker dollar and better than expected industrial EU sentiment. Platinum still has potential to move toward and past the 2010 highs. The March highs are the next target at $1,644.50 and $1,654.

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: The strength of the Dollar against European currencies, particularly the British Pound, has put precious metals prices under moderate pressure into the US Friday opening. Comments made overnight by an EU commissioner saying that the Greece situation has not been resolved yet, would seem to be behind the action in the currency markets. However, some metals traders have suggested recently that EU debt concerns were actually a source of buying support but that angle doesn’t seem to be in vogue this morning. News that the Greeks may sidestep the EU and appeal for help directly to the IMF could be seen as a back stop against a full return to runaway EU debt concerns. With no U.S. economic releases this morning, the markets might be left with the low inflation/muted growth view that was established earlier this week. However there is a triple witching expiration facing the US equity markets today and the expectation of a weekend vote on US health care reform and those two factors alone could serve to increase volatility in a number of commodity markets.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: April gold comes into the opening today under modest pressure, but still above this week’s lows. While there were reports of record gold production from a smaller producer overnight, the weakness in gold prices this morning appears to be the result of outside market influences, instead of classic supply and demand side developments. Therefore, the gold market probably won’t see much in the way of fresh selling interest from overnight news of higher Indian gold production in the ten months following April of 2009. The tech traders are noting a 21 day moving average at $1,118.80 today, as that level is just below the early Friday morning trade action. With the lack of scheduled US data flow today, the gold trade is likely to take a large measure of direction from either the currency markets or from US equities.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: May silver is showing some initial weakness in the early morning Friday trade. In fact, May silver has already managed to take out the lows of the last two trading days and at times this morning the silver market has also tracked below the 100 day moving average of $17.27. While silver exchange stocks have seen a series of modest builds this week, it would not seem like silver prices are being pressured this morning because of bearish physical supply news. Similarly, most traders doubt that news of lower US silver production for November 2009, versus October of 2009, from the US Geological Survey is being seen as a noted negative for silver prices today. While copper prices are higher this morning, weakness in energy prices and other physical commodity prices would seem to leave the outside market influence on silver mixed to slightly negative. In the end, a lack of scheduled US economic data today could mean that silver prices are destined to take a lot of direction from equities and from the currency markets.

PLATINUM: The platinum market is already seeing a partial breakdown on the charts this morning. Clearly platinum was technically overbought and perhaps in retrospect somewhat fundamentally overbought around this week’s highs. In fact, while the global economic outlook remains positive (with stories of an extremely tight Chinese labor market) the progression in the US recovery has been highly suspect. Up trend channel support in the April platinum market is seen at $1,606 toda, with the bear camp in the driver’s seat.

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: From a big picture perspective, the metals markets enter the early Thursday US trade with what appears to be a slightly upbeat macro economic tilt. In fact, some initial strength in the Euro and Pound overnight seems to suggest that the currency markets are showing signs of an increase in risk appetites again. With the Chinese floating favorable economic data overnight and that data flow actually fostering inflationary expectations instead of growth views, that would seem to be a 180 degree shift from the fears of a failed recovery threat in China from several weeks ago. As least in the early going today, concerns toward the Greece and UK debt situations appear to be tamped down again and that in turn appears to have put the US Dollar under some initial pressure. In looking forward, the metals trade will technically see the first noted scheduled data flow of the week from the US, in the form of the US claims report. With some market players suggesting that February activity was restricted due to adverse weather, some players are suggesting that today’s claims figures could be the first data points that are out from under the negative influences of severe winter weather. The market will also see US Trade Balance readings and the results of a 30 Year Bond auction.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The bull camp will probably try to play up news that South African gold production for the month of January forged another noted year over year decline. However, news of sagging South African gold production is not new news and even with the year over year decline in output coming in north of 18%, the gold trade just hasn’t given patently bullish supply side news that much credence lately. Some players have suggested that falling gold production will be given more credence when the trade begins to accept the prospect of sustainable global growth. Seeing talk of a possible overheating Chinese economy and a slightly weaker US Dollar would seem to leave the bull camp with a classic fundamental edge early today, but given the lingering weakness in gold prices early today, it would not seem like the early gold trade is embracing typically bullish angles. In retrospect, the gold market showed some surprising reaction to the ebb and flow of the currency markets in the prior trading session and therefore some players are of a mind, that the focus of the gold market is in a state of flux. Typically the gold market would be expected to benefit in the face of favorable US claims figures later this morning, especially if that news causes the Dollar to weaken, but the action yesterday calls that relationship into question.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The silver market this morning has already managed a quasi downside extension on the charts, with the May silver contract falling to the lowest level since March 2nd. The bull camp might be slightly disappointed with a modest rise in daily silver exchange stocks overnight, but it is also possible that the trade will give that news very little attention. The bull camp continues to suggest that silver is holding up better than gold on its charts and therefore it is possible that the silver trade will see the Tuesday low of $16.875 as some form of pivot point price. However, weakness in copper and platinum prices early today, would seem to rob the silver market of the support that was seen from those markets earlier in the week. The silver bulls probably hope for something supportive from the US claims data this morning, especially if that data serves to push up the Euro and weaken the US Dollar. The May silver contract comes into the early Thursday trade, right on its 50 day moving average of $16.89.

PLATINUM: The initial bias in platinum is pointing downward today but we don’t get the sense that platinum is poised for a major washout on the charts. We do think that the market became short term overbought early in the week and a certain amount of back and fill was needed. The real test of the bear’s resolve could be seen in the event that US numbers are good this morning. Near term up trend channel support in April platinum is seen at $1,578, but the 50 day moving average isn’t seen until $1,545.

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: With the outlook for the Greece situation seemingly improved by the latest austerity program and equity market action generally upbeat over the last 24 hours, that seems to have left physical commodities like the metals markets in favor. Apparently many markets have taken hawkish US Fed dialogue, as a sign that the US economy continues to progress toward recovery, even if scheduled data has failed to register much in the way of recovery progress. Therefore it is possible that many markets might simply discount a series of private jobs reports today. The markets will also see a US ISM Non Manufacturing release later this morning and a Fed Beige Book early this afternoon. However, with the US monthly non farm payroll reading due out on Friday morning and one of the private jobs reports this morning showing an improvement it is possible that the bull camp will lessen their concern toward the Friday numbers. As in the prior trading session, the action in the US equity markets look to be a major influence for gold and silver prices.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: In looking at the magnitude of the gains in gold in the prior trading session, one almost got the impression that “investment interest” was returning. Clearly a weaker Dollar and rising equities gave some credence to the prospect of recovery ahead, but in some cases it almost appeared as if hawkish US Fed dialogue was being interpreted as a development that signals a recovery in the US economy. In the end, seeing a rally in gold prices in the face of hawkish Fed dialogue and also seeing strength in the face of mostly slack US scheduled data has to embolden the bull camp and discourage the bear camp. It does appear as if favorable Indian demand patterns have provided some support to gold prices, but many traders think that gold strength is generally coming from outside or bigger picture elements. At least in the early action today, it would appear that calm in the Greek situation will give the bull’s some added confidence, while the bear camp will attempt to play up the prospect of weak jobs news from the US economy. For most of the last two months, the gold market has acted like a physical commodity market and therefore the tight correlation with equities is likely to continue to impact gold prices.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The Silver market has managed another new high for the move today and in the process it has managed to rise within close proximity to the 100 day moving average of $17.33. Clearly silver appears to be up beat toward the prospect of global growth, in the wake of an improvement in the Greek situation. It almost seems as if silver and other physical commodity markets have taken overtly hawkish dialogue from the US Fed, as a sign that the US economy “must” be improving. In other words, if the Fed is feeling the need to tighten, they must be seeing signs of progression in the US economy. In the short term, weakness in the Dollar and a lack of concern toward the economy looks to favor the silver bulls, while the bear camp will look to potential weakness in upcoming US jobs figures and further debt problems to stem the current rise in silver prices. The bear camp might also be hopeful that US monthly payroll readings on Friday morning will serve their case better than the economic psychology seen in the first three days of this week. In the end, classic supply and demand news in silver is minimal and seemingly unable to unseat the focus on outside market forces.

PLATINUM: Another new high for the move leaves the bull camp with clear control over platinum prices. A weaker Dollar and a pattern of positive spin on the economic outlook looks to add to the upward momentum in platinum. With the added support from a possible platinum strike in Australia, the platinum market is getting both internal and external fundamental support. Next upside targeting in April platinum is seen at $1,584 and again up at $1,594. While we have a gut concern that economic views are overly optimistic, it probably won’t pay to stand in the way of this market in the coming trading session.

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May copper is positively positioned in the early going today. With a weaker Dollar and generally up bear macro economic views, the bull camp has more ammunition than the bear camp. Limiting the upside in copper are beliefs that Chilean production won’t be seriously derailed because of the quake. While we can’t deny some upside action today, we are uncomfortable chasing copper prices higher off the current macro economic view. However, May copper will probably see some noted support off the even number $3.40 level, but we wouldn’t be surprised if the private jobs readings serves to temper the bullish attitude a bit in physical commodity markets later this week. On the other hand, some traders are taking notice of a small number of daily LME copper stock declines and suggesting that is the beginning of a pattern and that is another example of the market spinning marginal developments into a positive event.

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: While the US Dollar remains within striking distance of its recent highs, the Dollar action overnight does not appear to be the primary reason behind the slide in gold and silver prices. Apparently softer than expected US Consumer Confidence readings and the sharp downside push in global equities on Tuesday undermined global recovery views and that in turn has prompted selling in a host of physical commodity markets like gold and silver. It would also not seem like debt concerns in the Euro zone are behind the overnight weakness in the precious metals markets. With a US new home sales report due out later this morning and the outlook for the recovery seemingly downgraded recently the importance of regularly scheduled US data flows looks to have expanded. Some bulls might hope for some support off the US Fed Chairman testimony at mid morning, as the Chairman is expected to reiterate the need to leave US interest rates at low levels for an extended period of time. The markets will also see a second leg of US Treasury auctions around mid session with $42 billion in 5 Year notes being offered for sale.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: There appears to be a general macro economic let down being embraced in gold and other economically sensitive commodity markets. While the Consumer Confidence readings from the US aren’t typically seen as a top tier economic report, the market has apparently taken those readings to heart and it could take something very positive from the new home sales report this morning just to temper the fear of a long slow recovery process. After the early weakness in gold prices today, one could suggest that disappointment over potential Chinese interest for IMF gold supply added into the negative price tilt overnight, but the Chinese have already signaled that current gold price levels were unattractive to them. However, there are press reports overnight suggesting that India might be a buyer for the IMF gold supply and given the size of the IMF gold sale, it would not seem like the physical sale issues are a primary bear force for the gold trade. It would almost seem as if the gold trade is fearful of the US Fed Chairman testimony later today and therefore traders might expect to see some mid morning volatility in gold prices around that testimony. With gold and equities seemingly tightening their relationship recently, gold traders will probably continue to take a large measure of guidance from the US stock market.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The silver market remains under pressure in the early going today with the silver trade suggesting that broad based physical commodity market weakness was behind the slide in prices yesterday. As in the gold market, silver was disappointed with slack US numbers and also with the sharp declines in US equities. With noted weakness in industrial commodities like copper, the silver market seems to be encountering financial and industrial based selling pressure. Given the drift back a toward classic physical commodity market fundamental focus in silver, that could make the new home sales report and the action in the US equity markets this morning even more critical to the silver trade. The bear camp might even play up a minor trend of builds in daily silver exchange stocks as a negative but in the short term, the concern of slackening demand seems to be more important than minor supply side issues.

PLATINUM: There is no respect for the recovery and that leaves the door open for more liquidation selling in the platinum market. With an early failure back below the $1,500 level this morning, it is clear that some classic technical pressure is set to combine with a poor fundamental picture. However, we would not rule out a respect for support down at $1,489 in the face of Bernanke testimony this morning but only if the new home sales figures manage to stay in positive territory.

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With a slide below a series of key technical points on the charts overnight and a downshift in the global macro economic recovery view recently, we have to leave the bear camp in control of copper prices. With a decline in Chinese January refined copper imports seen overnight, the copper market would seem to be getting both internal and external bearish fundamental news. With a slide below the $3.20 level seen in March copper prices early this morning, we see little in the way of support on the charts until the $3.1490 level. In fact, unless the copper market can come away from the new home sales report this morning and the Bernanke testimony with a layer of fresh optimism, we can’t rule out a continued slide down to consolidation support down at the $3.10 level. Aggressive traders can be short, but one should probably tolerate any trade in March copper back above the $3.20 level.

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OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: With the US Dollar only slightly weaker this morning and gold and silver prices showing a very firm bid, it would not seem like the action in the currency markets was the primary catalyst behind the bullish action in the metals markets. With sharply higher equity market trade it is possible that an improvement in macro economic sentiment was providing the bull camp with a lift this morning. Some traders are suggesting that stronger than expected earnings from the UK bank Barclays was the primary force that served to improve overall macro economic sentiment today, while others suggested that the presence of a 30 day grace period for Greece was providing a temporary all clear signal. However, the markets could have been a little disappointed by the weak German ZEW readings overnight, but that information was seemingly overshadowed by the Barclays news and by the expectation of somewhat positive US scheduled data flows later this morning. With the US scheduled to release an Empire State Manufacturing report and a NAHB Housing Index reading and the trade calling for minimally positive readings in both those reports, it is possible that the US Dollar will remain off balance and physical commodities like gold and silver will be supported by today’s data.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: With a definitive range up extension this morning on the charts, the April gold contract has managed to reach the highest level since February 3rd. In addition to an improved macro economic condition this morning, the gold trade seems to be somewhat relieved that the situation in Greece might be put on hold for a full month. The gold market might also have garnered some support from a string of favorable US and UK corporate earnings reports this morning, as that news seems to have reversed the patently bearish economic sentiment that seemed to be settling into the markets last Friday. Surprisingly Indian gold market action overnight was mostly unimpressive and that suggests that improvement in developed country economic sentiment is indeed a major component of the bull case this morning. However, with April gold managing to climb back above the 50 day moving average early this morning, that action has fostered some talk that the gold market might be throwing off the downward bias that has periodically dominated the trade since the early December 2009 top. At least in the early going today, it would appear that favorable equity market action means more to the gold bulls, than minor US Dollar weakness.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: As in the gold market, the silver market bulls appear to be cheered by the idea that Greece has been given a 30 day grace period. It is also likely that favorable UK bank earnings news from Barclays is adding into the positive macro economic tilt this morning in silver. In short, silver appears to be deriving most of its upward action off an improvement in macro economic sentiment and not necessarily from minor declines in the US Dollar. Unlike the gold market, the silver market hasn’t been able to regain its 50 day moving average, which surprisingly sits all the way up at $17.19 in the May silver contract. For the time being, silver appears to be acting like a physical commodity market, that is seeing a modest improvement in overall psychology but it is also possible that distinctly favorable US equity market action will be the key to the silver bull’s near term control over prices. Unfortunately for the bull camp, the silver market was once again presented with news of a rather sharp gain in physical silver production from Pan American silver over the weekend but apparently the silver trade is discounting bearish supply side news in favor of an improvement in overall physical commodity demand expectations.

PLATINUM: Like the rest of the physical commodities, platinum is apparently poised to extend on the upside. With a weaker Dollar and higher equities and perhaps even some favorable US scheduled data flow, we have to think that April platinum is capable of a near term rise back above the $1,550 level. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report for platinum showed that as of February 9th, the Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 22,532 contracts, which represents a decrease of only 100 contracts in their prior net long position. However, with April platinum to this morning’s highs, already sitting as much as $38 an ounce above the level where the COT report was measured, the net spec positioning in platinum is clearly understated.