Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

World stock markets showed some weakness overnight and that weakness might have come from any number of minor bearish themes. First of all, it is possible that the markets were simply banking some profits and were in need of technical balancing. It is also possible that news of a quake in the Asian region, sparked some weakness, or it is possible that fresh restrictions on borrowing in China provided a slight financial tremor. In looking at the developments from Greece overnight, it would seem as if that situation was mostly under control and therefore not the source of the sideways to lower overnight price action. One could also suggest that a very minimal rise in Euro zone GDP and or a decline in UK Halifax house price report were discouraging and possibly a source of minor selling in stocks. Our gut suggests that the initial weakness today, is the result of the Chinese tightening and the need to technically balance stock prices. In looking forward, we are slightly positive as the scheduled numbers today look to be indicative of ongoing growth and since the US Fed Beige Book yesterday afternoon also conceded to growth across most US Federal Reserve districts, the overall macro economic view should remain positive. However, it would seem like the US Administration is once again poised to push for the Volcker rule and that should be considered a limiting development.

S&P 500: Unfortunately for the bull camp, up trend channel support is seen all the way down at 1100.30, with a closer-in support level seen at 1112.80. We see a critical pivot point this morning into the scheduled US data, as the market has already managed a slight technical correction and the failure to bounce off decent US numbers and the initial results from the Greek auction would suggest that the bull camp is losing its desire.

DOW: The March Mini Dow showed some patently bearish technical action overnight as it managed to take out the prior two session’s lows. However, up trend channel support in the March Mini Dow is seen at 10,308 and that up trend channel support line rises to 10,335 on Friday. The market seems to be partially undermined, as a result of the renewed push for the Volcker exclusion and that might mean the US scheduled data will have to be distinctly positive this morning in order to rekindle speculative buying interest in the market, especially ahead of the ultra critical monthly payroll report on Friday morning.

NASDAQ: The March Nasdaq comes into the action this morning waffling around both sides of the 1850 level. Critical support is seen down at 1842.75 today and a failure of that level could promote noted stop loss selling pressure. Apparently some players are fearful of the monthly US payroll report on Friday morning and that should make today’s rather active flow of scheduled data rather important. In fact, unless the Greek debt sours from an initial favorable standing we suspect that liquidation pressure might be limited and easily reversed by US scheduled data flows.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Some technical corrective action underway and since anxiety off the Greece situation looks to be tempered, the market should be able to bounce off US data flows.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

Apparently Treasury prices were lifted late Wednesday in the face of some initial weakness in global equity prices, but it is possible that prices might have been lifted by early reports of yet another earthquake ( centered in Taiwan). Clearly Treasuries were lifted in the wake of the Fed Beige book yesterday perhaps because the Fed merely acknowledged the impact of severe February weather on the numbers and that theme has been offered up as an impact on the Friday numbers. However, the Fed Beige Book also noted growth across most Fed sections even though they made note of the weather impact. With the additional commentary that “layoffs slowed” and that hiring plans were anemic, that probably signaled to the market that the US jobs sector remains weak and with the key monthly reading just ahead, that prompted the Treasury market to recover and perhaps to see some fresh outright buying for a speculative play on the Friday payroll reports. We also think that renewed talk about the “Volcker Rule” rekindles some concern that Treasuries might once again be one of the few investments available to Banks. It also seems as if the Greece situation is mostly under control overnight, as that country launched a debt offering today and the results early on seemed to be mostly OK and that could serve to drain some flight to quality buying interest from the Treasury market.

In looking ahead to the scheduled data flow today, the markets will see a very active flow of data, with the weekly claims data, Pending Home sales and Factory orders. There is also a US Productivity reading to be released today and we suspect that will be supportive to Treasuries, as the job market remains soft enough, that employers are continuing to squeeze out production from an aggressively trimmed work force. However, until there is a higher degree of uncertainty on the hike/no hike question, the Productivity reading shouldn’t be seen as an overly important reading. In the other reports, the trade seems to be expecting a modest gain in Factory Orders and also in Pending Home sales and that could be limiting for Treasury prices, but only if the claims data, released ahead of the second set of data, manages to show some declines.

In conclusion, we think that the claims data will be the most important data of the day, with the Pending Home sales report, the report that might be capable of providing the biggest surprise. Therefore, we think that the upside will remain limited by the data today, with the June bonds potentially finding it difficult to rise above 117-17 and Notes above the 117-18 level. In fact, if the claims data shows the type of declines predicted by some economists, the Treasury market could see a mostly bearish track throughout the morning trading session. We suspect that ranges might be narrowed later today due to the US Non Farm payroll report on Friday morning, unless of course the stock market takes out the Tuesday lows off some fresh disconcerting development.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

The Treasury market had the benefit of Bernanke comments in the prior trading session, as slack auction results could have sunk prices, but apparently the promise of holding US rates down ruled the trade. With Bernanke pointing to a stubborn job market and low inflation as justification for the Fed’s on-hold strategy, the market was able to reach up to the highest level since February 10th. Treasury prices have remained just below the prior session’s highs through the overnight action, with residual Greece concerns and marginally lower global equity prices providing the bulls with the edge. With a Greek official lashing out against the German people and questioning the intelligence of EU leadership, one gets the impression that the negotiations between the two entities is on the rocks again. With protests continuing in Greece, a major ratings agency has suggested that a downgrade could be forth coming. Therefore, Treasuries are poised to get some residual flight to quality support, which comes on top of a very disappointing US new home sales report on Wednesday morning. In short, the outlook for the US recovery is suspect again and support from flight to quality angles is expected to continue to surface. However, the market will be presented with the last round of Treasury auctions later today, with $32 billion in 7 Year notes to be floated and that could take away some of the early gains in prices. Ultimately, we suspect that ongoing concern for the slow pace of the recovery is capable of offsetting what is expected to be slack demand for the longest maturity in the current auction cycle. With residual slowing fears seen from international economic readings, ongoing Chinese tightening fears and the recent flow of slack US numbers, it is possible that the fear of supply will simply be glossed over today. In fact, the Durable Goods report might be discounted this morning, especially if the report shows an as expected modest gain of only +1% to +1.5%. In other words, it will take a definitively stronger than expected US Durable Goods report or something favorable from the claims data just to alter the upward tilt in Treasury prices. We suspect that Bernanke testimony today will carry less weight because his views were presented in the prior trading session. However, one should not expect to see aggressive gains in US Treasuries unless that action is prompted by a severe breakdown in the Greece situation or by a very hard slide in US equities. In the end, one has to concede to a slow grinding rise in Treasury prices in the early action today, with the gains tempered into and through the mid day auction results. Given the economic setup today, June bonds might see little in the way of resistance until the 117-00 level, with similar resistance in June Notes not seen until 117-10. For the time being, close-in support looks to present itself at 116-20 in June bonds and at 116-27 in June Notes. In general, expect slow grinding gains on the charts ahead.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar Index continues to maintain a bullish tilt on the charts, despite lingering concerns for the pace of the US recovery. However, ongoing concerns toward the Greece situation has provided the Dollar with a bid in the overnight action. While a sloppy or slack US Durable goods report might restrict the upside in the Dollar today and the Dollar might also be undermined as a result of a marathon televised Washington political debacle, the bias looks to remain up in the Greenback. In other words, the economic and political outlook inside the US isn’t overly impressive, but apparently the outlook and condition in the Euro zone is even worse. In fact, overnight the Euro zone saw economic sentiment decline for the first time in 11 months and S&P has warned of a possible downgrade of the Greece debt rating. Some sources are suggesting that a downgrade of the Greek credit rating will cancel out the budget slashing efforts that are already causing violent protests. With a Greek official reportedly lashing out against the Germans and also maligning the EU leadership, it is clear that tensions are running pretty hot. Therefore, the Dollar looks to continue to get the benefit of the doubt on its economy, because of a more powerful flight to quality influence. Critical up trend channel support is seen at 80.36 but a closer in support level is also seen at 80.86.

EURO: As suggested already, the situation in Greece continues to undermine the Euro at the same time that Euro zone economic readings depicted a lack of internal confidence. With the EU overnight, releasing a series of growth forecasts on its members, it is clear that investors aren’t going to rush to invest in the Euro zone for high rates of return. We think the lashing out from a lower level Greek official is an indication that the bailout package being offered from the Euro zone is a paltry offering. Therefore we see a series of lower lows ahead in the Euro, with the next critical chart support level not seen until the 1.3420 level on the weekly Euro chart.

YEN: The Yen continues to benefit from the turmoil in the Euro zone and also because of the confusing situation in the US. Therefore a certain amount of flight to quality uncertainty is expected to flow toward the Yen. In fact, with a “ratings agency” giving the Japanese a left handed compliment, by suggesting that the Japanese situation was not at all like the Greek situation, it would seem like the bulls in the Yen are getting help from the headline spin. Near term upside targeting is seen up at 112.61 and the bull camp looks to remain in control.

SWISS: Once again the Swiss remains vulnerable to spillover pressure from the Euro. While the trade continues to talk about the threat of intervention from the SNB, there doesn’t appear to be a need to intervene as the down trend in the Swiss looks to be entrenched. Down trend channel resistance is seen up at 92.93, with the odds looking really good for the lowest trade in the March Swiss since June of 2009.

POUND: A definitive range down extension in the Pound overnight highlights a deteriorating global recovery view and perhaps even renewed concerns toward the debt situation in the UK. The UK debt situation was temporarily forgotten in the face of generally upbeat economic views but now that the recovery view is tempered somewhat the debt fears have returned. Apparently BOE dialogue continues to add to the selling pressure in the Pound, as the trade sees the need to extend quant easing, as a sign that the UK economy remains in a pickle. One has to go to the weekly charts in the Pound to find the next support level down at 1.5113.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: Like the Pound, the Canadian is being undermined by sagging macro economic views. If the US economy remains slow, Greece remains a threat and the Chinese are still thought to be on the cusp of more tightening, a recovery currency/commodity currency like the Canadian, is probably going to remain out of favor. There should not be a lot of pressure on the Canadian, but the Canadian should work consistently lower on the charts.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar and Yen look to continue to win by default.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

We are a little surprised to see Treasury prices still holding close to the recent consolidation high zone around 117-28 in March bonds, especially after stories surfaced overnight about China potentially moving to reduce its holdings of US debt. While some might have been inclined to press US Treasuries in the wake of ongoing debt concerns, there is a fresh movement afoot in Washington to meet the publics cry for reigning in US spending. However, seeing ongoing gains in global equity markets this morning in the wake of favorable corporate earnings flow yesterday and also in the wake of two favorable US economic reports on Tuesday, would seem to leave the bear camp with a slight edge today. We also have to wonder if an ongoing political shift in the US is serving to tamp down ideas that financial reform will not end up stripping the banks of their trading capacity.

Seeing the banks stripped of holding anything but US Treasuries, might have contributed to the 5 point rally off the December lows, but until there is a distinct shift in the tone of the financial reform effort, one shouldn’t expect Treasuries to begin to fall off that angle. However, Treasuries have to be a little concerned about the Chinese scaling back their US holdings, but apparently inflation expectations have been tamped down in the last 24 hours by comments from the Minnesota Fed president yesterday and also because of BOE statements that suggested inflation might only be set to come back up to target levels if quantitative easing was left in place longer than necessary. With a surprise increase in UK unemployment readings seen overnight, that news probably serves to temper the recent improvement of global economic sentiment but higher US equity market opening indications has certainly left the bears in the Treasuries with a bit of an early edge. However, the key feature of the Wednesday trading session should still be the US housing starts and permits data, which we think will show mixed results. Most expectations call for a rise in housing starts, but we think that the permits reading (which can be a leading indictor) will come in softer than expected and that could give rise to a March bond rally back to even number resistance of 118-00, with a similar upside potential in March Notes initially pegged at 118-10.

We then suspect the Treasury market will be knocked back a bit in the wake of the second set of scheduled US economic readings (Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization) as the expectations for those figures mostly call for gains in both of those readings. In the end, unless the US housing permits are “headline” weak, we suspect that rallies in Treasuries should still be sold on a short term basis but traders do need to be aware of a speech due just ahead of mid session from the Philly Fed President. At least for the time being, flight to quality interest in US Treasuries looks to be on the wane and that should make it difficult for the markets to take out and sustain above this week’s highs on the charts.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

The stock market forged a very impressive extension of its recent upward track yesterday and is seemingly set to add to that effort early today. We continue to see the 1100 level in the March S&P as a critical resistance zone but for the next few trading sessions, it would seem like the bull camp is capable of extending its control. We are not sure if the continuing shift in political power in the US is behind the recently improved sentiment, or if the improvement in sentiment is being derived from favorable corporate earnings or from the 30 day grace period for Greece, but the trade does seem to be spinning the headlines into mostly favorable stories. At least in the early action today we saw financial/bank sector stocks mounting gains in the early European trade and that looks to start the US action out on a slightly positive tilt. However, sentiment isn’t definitively positive and the bull camp in stocks probably needs distinct help from both the US Housing starts and permits reports and also from the US Industrial Production/Capacity Utilization readings. So far, it is unclear how the markets will react to news of another “bi-partisan” debt reducing effort from Washington, mostly because cooperation in Washington has become a very rare event. In conclusion, we suspect that the numbers will be partially acceptable today, but that gains today will probably be smaller than yesterday.

S&P 500: Unlike other sectors of the market, the March S&P hasn’t managed an upside breakout on the charts. However, the S&P has managed to extend the recent pattern of gains and did forge a higher high for the move this morning. Initial support is seen at 1093.90, with initial resistance seen up at 1101.50. At least into the opening today, we concede to a bullish edge in the market, but we are not sure if a negative US housing permits reading will fully take the edge away from the bull camp.

DOW: With the March Mini Dow managing to post some positive early action this morning and in the process managing to forge a quasi upside breakout on the charts, one has to leave the edge with the bull camp. Unfortunately, we doubt that the first set of scheduled US data will provide a conclusively bullish reading from the US housing front and that could diffuse a portion of the early bullish tilt. At least into the opening today, support in the March Mini Dow moves up to 10,241, with initial resistance pegged up at 10,310.

NASDAQ: Like the Mini Dow, the Nasdaq has also managed an overnight extension of the recent bull track, with the March Nasdaq reaching the highest level since January 28th. Apparently the smaller cap stocks are being pulled higher by favorable views toward financial and large cap stocks and that leaves the bull camp with a slight edge into the US opening today. Initial support in the March Nasdaq is currently seen at 1797.75, with resistance today pegged at 1808. For the time being, the broad macro economic view looks to be the main factor driving stock prices.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The bulls still have the edge but upside momentum looks to be waning and the bulls probably need some help from the numbers.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: With the US Dollar Index managing a fresh new low for the move overnight, it is clear that the flight to quality concerns in the marketplace are currently minimal. However, we suspect that the Dollar might be poised to see a bit of a lift in the wake of the US Housing Permits release, as that reading is expected to be soft and that reading is sometimes considered a leading indicator for the US housing sector. We are not sure if the US Dollar is poised to react to the shifting political scene in the US and we are also not sure if the Dollar is going to be impacted by talk that China might be taking measures to lower their US debt holdings. However, seeing even a slight tempering of Chinese interest for US Treasuries, in the face of historic supply flow of US debt, can’t be a good thing for the US Dollar in the long run! At least in the near term, we see the prospect of further minor weakness in the Dollar, off a slight improvement in macro economic sentiment, but we really doubt that the overall pattern of strength seen in the US Dollar since the late November low is set to come to an end, especially since the Greece situation is apparently far from being resolved.

EURO: While the Euro technically showed a quasi upside breakout off a steep down trend channel resistance line overnight, the currency quickly failed at that level. With some news stories surfacing on various financial moves inside Spain overnight, we suspect that the fear of additional debt crisis developments in the Euro zone will continue to undermine overall Euro sentiment. We continue to think that rallies back to 137.50 should be considered a selling opportunity in the March Euro, especially if the press manages to dredge up any additional problems with EU membership maneuvers. It is even possible that slack US economic numbers will also manage to weigh on the Euro, as the Euro, Swiss and Pound can hardly afford to see any slower than expected recovery news from the US economy.

YEN: The March Yen continues to derive some measure of support from the 50 day moving average, but it would still seem like the technical bias in the Yen is favoring the downside. We also have to wonder if Toyota troubles are indirectly weighing on the Yen, as the Press seems to be pushing for the Toyota CEO to testify to the US Congress. On the other hand, with a shift in Chinese ownership of US debt, the Japanese have apparently become the largest holder of US government debt and therefore Congress had better tread lightly in their attempt to harangue a foreign corporation. In the near term, we don’t see a definitive downward thrust in the Yen, but we would expect to see a sub 110 Yen trade over the coming trading sessions.

SWISS: With a pattern of lower highs on the charts and ongoing negative internal macro economic sentiment, the bear camp looks to retain an edge in the Swiss. In fact, some press outlets suggested that the SNB was possibly acting to restrain the Swiss from further gains and that would in turn seem to suggest that the 94.00 level in the March Swiss has become some form of fundamental and technical resistance zone. While we don’t see the prospect of an aggressive thrust down in the Swiss, a series of downside moves still looks to be in the cards.

POUND: As we suggested earlier this week, the Pound has managed to benefit from the recent improvement in sentiment. However, without stepwise further improvement in views toward the US economy, we doubt that the Pound will be able to garner that much upward momentum. In fact, with some forces calling for Greece to respond to currency swap charges by the end of the week it is still possible that the Euro zone debt issue will serve to trip up recovery currencies like the Pound. We can’t argue against more minor gains in the Pound this morning but we are just not inclined to call for a sustained upward action in the Pound.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: While the Canadian hasn’t managed to forge a fresh new high for the move today, the bull camp might retain a slight edge. However, a slack UK employment reading, residual Greece currency swap fears and fears that China might be scaling back US debt purchases, are all forces that serve to temper buying interest in the Canadian Dollar. With a more mixed tone in physical commodity markets this morning and only a minor higher opening indication in US equities, that leaves seems to leave the Canadian with a very thin bullish edge. It would also seem like the Canadian is in need of a slight technical balancing after a rather stellar two week rally.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar generally remains the leadership currency as Euro zone issues are not being restricted to the back burner.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

Treasuries seem to be capped off just under last week’s highs on the charts, but we suspect that the market will garner some support off the 3 Year Note auction results at mid session today. However, while investors have shown the most interest in the shorter end of the yield curve in recent auctions, the heavy amount of supply lumped into first tranche of supply today could reduce the potential of a distinctly favorable result. With the Dow falling below the psychological 10,000 level yesterday and seemingly set to remain below that level into the opening this morning, we suspect that the action in the equity markets is generally destined to provide some minor indirect pressure to Treasury prices in the early going today. Yesterday a Fed member suggested that they might begin some asset sales in the 2nd half of 2010, but he also added that the Fed might not begin to tighten until after beginning the asset sales. Therefore, the Fed seems to have indicated that rates are likely to remain on hold through mid year.

With the economic report slate today somewhat thin (except for a Wholesale trade release) there shouldn’t be that much fresh news on the condition of the US economy. At least ahead of the auction, the March bonds look to have resistance up at 119-11, with similar early resistance in March Notes ahead of the auction seen at 118-23. Even though the Treasuries might show some initial weakness this morning we suspect that overall conditions are going to continue to favor the bull camp and that the auction results will add to the bullish tilt later on in the session. Apparently some early recovery bounce type action in US equities is applying some initial pressure to Treasury prices, but we would think that March bonds will find some buying interest around the 118-22 level, with a similar buying support level in March Notes seen around 118-11. In fact, despite the attempt to recover in the equity markets, the Press and trade still see to be fostering concerns toward EU debt. With a German CPI reading overnight actually posting a decline of 0.6%, it would certainly seem like economic activity in Germany remains suspect and that could indirectly provide a minor amount of support to US Treasuries.

Even if the US equity market action promotes bearishness toward Treasury prices early, we suspect that the trade will wait until after the results of the Treasury auction is known at mid session, before they make a definitive play.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

While the markets are showing some rebound action in the early going, we don’t get the sense that the market has pivoted off a deck clearing fundamental development. In other words, the recovery effort this morning seems to be mostly a technical anomaly, with the trade still generally concerned about the EU debt situation. About the most positive development, is that severe weather in Washington has effectively eliminated the flow of political uncertainty temporarily but even that lucky break isn’t expected to last for long, especially with Bernanke scheduled for a grilling on Wednesday. With the US economic report slate today somewhat inactive, with only a Wholesale trade release, one shouldn’t expect a sudden improvement in overall psychology. We do think that the equity markets might derive a small measure of support from the first leg of US Treasury auctions later today, as high demand for US 3 Year notes might send a message that rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. In fact, with a Fed member yesterday suggesting that the Fed would wait until the 2nd half of the year to begin asset sales and also suggesting that they would wait until after the asset sales begin before hiking rates, the market should be confident that rates for now are destined to remain low. In short, the market can periodically bounce, but we don’t get a sense that the bear tilt has been discarded yet.

S&P 500: Until the March S&P manages to regain and hold above 1070.40 we will assume that the trend is pointing down. As suggested already the trade continues to fret over the prospect of EU debt problems under the surface and the trade also seems to think that the pace of the US recovery remains in question. Perhaps the market will get a temporary lift from the US Treasury auction or perhaps the market will get a fleeting lift off the promise of another US jobs bill, but we are not sure that the market will find the news to fully throw off the negative bias that has dominated the trade since the middle of January.

DOW: While the March Mini Dow is showing signs of returning to the 10,000 level in the action this morning, we continue to see more risk to longs than potential reward. As suggested already, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a bounce into mid session today, in the wake of the US Treasury auction, but we ultimately think that prices are destined to work even lower. While some bulls might be banking on a key low in the face of a Senate jobs bill announcement, the market wasn’t upbeat toward that prospect when it was initially announced. While traders and investors aren’t overly negative toward prospects, we aren’t sure that a single economic report or some statement from Washington is capable of suddenly shifting the trend securely back to the upside. We would be a seller of rallies in the March Mini Dow to 10,000 perhaps even after a knee jerk reaction to Coke earnings today.

NASDAQ: Like the rest of the marketplace, the March Nasdaq has forged a recovery attempt in the early action today and we would not be surprised to see an additional lift provided by corporate earnings news, but we just don’t think that corporate earnings or a third tier US economic reading is capable of taking the negative tilt completely out of the equity markets. However, those looking to get short this market, might wait until after mid day to step into short side positions. In fact, one should probably wait for a bounce back above 1756 in the March Nasdaq to re-enter a short side trade.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The bull camp might be able to control for the first half of the trading session but we fear that the afternoon will bring on the sellers again.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: Not surprisingly the Dollar is lower this morning as concerns toward EU debt are apparently being temporarily pushed to a back burner position. However, the debt concerns haven’t dissipated they are just a little stale or perhaps temporarily over exposed. It does seem as if the recovery bounce in equities is serving to undermine the Dollar this morning, as higher equity price action gives off the impression of a trade that is going to be interested in slightly riskier investments. It is possible that favorable Coke earnings, a favorable US Treasury auction result and hope for the Senate Jobs bills could add to the downside tilt in the Dollar throughout the trade today. However, we doubt that traders will want to remain negative toward the Dollar beyond the US trading session today. Apparently the markets are currently of a mind that recent Greek maneuvers are capable of staving off more near term concerns and that also is prompting some long liquidation of the Dollar. We see the 80.00 level as a critical support zone, with longer term up trend channel support seen down at 79.46, but that up trend channel support line climbs up to 79.62 on Wednesday.

EURO: While the Euro is seeing some technical short covering buying in the early trade today, the scheduled number flow from the Euro zone wasn’t exactly overly beneficial to the bull case. In fact, a German CPI reading overnight actually declined by 0.6% and that would seem to point to deflation rather than inflation in the Euro zone. Therefore suggestions from Trichet that the EU needed to keep inflation expectations anchored, hardly serves to foment inflationary views toward the Euro. However, the Euro was certainly aggressively oversold into last week’s lows and a slight recovery effort in the equity markets today could allow for a temporary rise back above the 1.3750 level in the March Euro. In the end, we just don’t see the catalyst for an end to the downtrend pattern in the Euro.

YEN: News of a further tempering of the Greek situation and higher equity market action overnight has undermined the Yen from a flight to quality perspective. Up trend channel support is seen all the way down at 110.22 today, with that support level rising to 110.38 on Wednesday. In an indirect way, the Toyota problems could be a slight undermine to the Yen, but the biggest blow to the yen might come from a temporary unsustainable reaction to the upcoming US jobs bill.
Aggressive traders should be willing to sell the March Yen on any rally today back above the 112.00 level.

SWISS: Like the Euro, the Swiss was technically overdone around the lows last week and now the currency is due a temporary corrective bounce. At least for the near term, the Greece situation is apparently going to shift to a back burner status and that should also allow the Swiss to recover. Initial resistance is seen up at 94.00 but we can’t rule out a temporary rally back above that level in the coming 8 hours of trade. In other words, US corporate earnings, US auction results and the promise of another US jobs bill seems to have taken the Greece story out of the headlines.

POUND: Despite seeing some recovery action in other non dollar currencies this morning, the Pound is not showing much in the way of a bounce mentality. In fact, one might have expected the Pound to benefit from slightly higher equity market action overnight but apparently the Pound isn’t easily cheered. A widening of the UK trade deficit overnight seems to have undermined the Pound, as the trade took those readings as confirmation that the recovery progress in the UK is still very questionable. In short, the trend in the Pound looks to remain down with only a brief pause above the 1.55 level today.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Canadian is getting some temporary support from what appears to be a slight improvement in global macro economic sentiment. However, we just don’t see the fundamental news to suggest that equities, commodities and the Canadian are poised for sustainable upside action ahead. Therefore, aggressive and short term traders should consider getting short the March Canadian on a minor bounce today back to the 93.83 level.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Minor Dollar weakness early today, not an end to the recent uptrend pattern.