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DOLLAR: The Dollar Index continues to maintain a bullish tilt on the charts, despite lingering concerns for the pace of the US recovery. However, ongoing concerns toward the Greece situation has provided the Dollar with a bid in the overnight action. While a sloppy or slack US Durable goods report might restrict the upside in the Dollar today and the Dollar might also be undermined as a result of a marathon televised Washington political debacle, the bias looks to remain up in the Greenback. In other words, the economic and political outlook inside the US isn’t overly impressive, but apparently the outlook and condition in the Euro zone is even worse. In fact, overnight the Euro zone saw economic sentiment decline for the first time in 11 months and S&P has warned of a possible downgrade of the Greece debt rating. Some sources are suggesting that a downgrade of the Greek credit rating will cancel out the budget slashing efforts that are already causing violent protests. With a Greek official reportedly lashing out against the Germans and also maligning the EU leadership, it is clear that tensions are running pretty hot. Therefore, the Dollar looks to continue to get the benefit of the doubt on its economy, because of a more powerful flight to quality influence. Critical up trend channel support is seen at 80.36 but a closer in support level is also seen at 80.86.

EURO: As suggested already, the situation in Greece continues to undermine the Euro at the same time that Euro zone economic readings depicted a lack of internal confidence. With the EU overnight, releasing a series of growth forecasts on its members, it is clear that investors aren’t going to rush to invest in the Euro zone for high rates of return. We think the lashing out from a lower level Greek official is an indication that the bailout package being offered from the Euro zone is a paltry offering. Therefore we see a series of lower lows ahead in the Euro, with the next critical chart support level not seen until the 1.3420 level on the weekly Euro chart.

YEN: The Yen continues to benefit from the turmoil in the Euro zone and also because of the confusing situation in the US. Therefore a certain amount of flight to quality uncertainty is expected to flow toward the Yen. In fact, with a “ratings agency” giving the Japanese a left handed compliment, by suggesting that the Japanese situation was not at all like the Greek situation, it would seem like the bulls in the Yen are getting help from the headline spin. Near term upside targeting is seen up at 112.61 and the bull camp looks to remain in control.

SWISS: Once again the Swiss remains vulnerable to spillover pressure from the Euro. While the trade continues to talk about the threat of intervention from the SNB, there doesn’t appear to be a need to intervene as the down trend in the Swiss looks to be entrenched. Down trend channel resistance is seen up at 92.93, with the odds looking really good for the lowest trade in the March Swiss since June of 2009.

POUND: A definitive range down extension in the Pound overnight highlights a deteriorating global recovery view and perhaps even renewed concerns toward the debt situation in the UK. The UK debt situation was temporarily forgotten in the face of generally upbeat economic views but now that the recovery view is tempered somewhat the debt fears have returned. Apparently BOE dialogue continues to add to the selling pressure in the Pound, as the trade sees the need to extend quant easing, as a sign that the UK economy remains in a pickle. One has to go to the weekly charts in the Pound to find the next support level down at 1.5113.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: Like the Pound, the Canadian is being undermined by sagging macro economic views. If the US economy remains slow, Greece remains a threat and the Chinese are still thought to be on the cusp of more tightening, a recovery currency/commodity currency like the Canadian, is probably going to remain out of favor. There should not be a lot of pressure on the Canadian, but the Canadian should work consistently lower on the charts.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar and Yen look to continue to win by default.

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DOLLAR: With the US Dollar Index managing a fresh new low for the move overnight, it is clear that the flight to quality concerns in the marketplace are currently minimal. However, we suspect that the Dollar might be poised to see a bit of a lift in the wake of the US Housing Permits release, as that reading is expected to be soft and that reading is sometimes considered a leading indicator for the US housing sector. We are not sure if the US Dollar is poised to react to the shifting political scene in the US and we are also not sure if the Dollar is going to be impacted by talk that China might be taking measures to lower their US debt holdings. However, seeing even a slight tempering of Chinese interest for US Treasuries, in the face of historic supply flow of US debt, can’t be a good thing for the US Dollar in the long run! At least in the near term, we see the prospect of further minor weakness in the Dollar, off a slight improvement in macro economic sentiment, but we really doubt that the overall pattern of strength seen in the US Dollar since the late November low is set to come to an end, especially since the Greece situation is apparently far from being resolved.

EURO: While the Euro technically showed a quasi upside breakout off a steep down trend channel resistance line overnight, the currency quickly failed at that level. With some news stories surfacing on various financial moves inside Spain overnight, we suspect that the fear of additional debt crisis developments in the Euro zone will continue to undermine overall Euro sentiment. We continue to think that rallies back to 137.50 should be considered a selling opportunity in the March Euro, especially if the press manages to dredge up any additional problems with EU membership maneuvers. It is even possible that slack US economic numbers will also manage to weigh on the Euro, as the Euro, Swiss and Pound can hardly afford to see any slower than expected recovery news from the US economy.

YEN: The March Yen continues to derive some measure of support from the 50 day moving average, but it would still seem like the technical bias in the Yen is favoring the downside. We also have to wonder if Toyota troubles are indirectly weighing on the Yen, as the Press seems to be pushing for the Toyota CEO to testify to the US Congress. On the other hand, with a shift in Chinese ownership of US debt, the Japanese have apparently become the largest holder of US government debt and therefore Congress had better tread lightly in their attempt to harangue a foreign corporation. In the near term, we don’t see a definitive downward thrust in the Yen, but we would expect to see a sub 110 Yen trade over the coming trading sessions.

SWISS: With a pattern of lower highs on the charts and ongoing negative internal macro economic sentiment, the bear camp looks to retain an edge in the Swiss. In fact, some press outlets suggested that the SNB was possibly acting to restrain the Swiss from further gains and that would in turn seem to suggest that the 94.00 level in the March Swiss has become some form of fundamental and technical resistance zone. While we don’t see the prospect of an aggressive thrust down in the Swiss, a series of downside moves still looks to be in the cards.

POUND: As we suggested earlier this week, the Pound has managed to benefit from the recent improvement in sentiment. However, without stepwise further improvement in views toward the US economy, we doubt that the Pound will be able to garner that much upward momentum. In fact, with some forces calling for Greece to respond to currency swap charges by the end of the week it is still possible that the Euro zone debt issue will serve to trip up recovery currencies like the Pound. We can’t argue against more minor gains in the Pound this morning but we are just not inclined to call for a sustained upward action in the Pound.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: While the Canadian hasn’t managed to forge a fresh new high for the move today, the bull camp might retain a slight edge. However, a slack UK employment reading, residual Greece currency swap fears and fears that China might be scaling back US debt purchases, are all forces that serve to temper buying interest in the Canadian Dollar. With a more mixed tone in physical commodity markets this morning and only a minor higher opening indication in US equities, that leaves seems to leave the Canadian with a very thin bullish edge. It would also seem like the Canadian is in need of a slight technical balancing after a rather stellar two week rally.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar generally remains the leadership currency as Euro zone issues are not being restricted to the back burner.

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DOLLAR: The Dollar has shown definitively bullish and definitively bearish tilts this week. As in the world equity markets, the currency markets are facing a significant amount of uncertainty in the US, with respect to government policy, taxation, spending, clean air and perhaps several other issues that should be nowhere near the front burner. In the end, the pace of the US economy doesn’t seem to support a distinct flow of fresh capital toward the Dollar, but the lack of a definitive alternative has seemingly kept the Dollar well bid this week. In fact, the Dollar bulls seemed to buy into the idea that the US would actually live up to promises to limit spending. Like the US stock market, we have trouble being bullish toward the Dollar off the current track in the US economy. One would also think that seeing the US Federal Reserve remain on hold again today would be negative for the Greenback. Getting away from politics, Obama would seem to need to bring down the level of policy uncertainty for the US Dollar and for most US assets to be held in consistent favor. We get the sense that the Dollar is expensive above 79.00.

EURO: While the March Euro actually managed another new low for the move overnight, the currency did manage to reject that slide. However, the Euro remains just above the downside breakout point and while the German government gave some positive economic views overnight, the 2010 German GDP forecast for a gain of only 1.4% hardly looks to attract an aggressive influx of investment. The one thing the Euro does have going for it, is a lack of political wrangling and to a degree, that has probably served to limit the amount of selling pressure on the currency. We seriously doubt that the March Euro is going to avoid at least a temporary slide below the 1.40 level. The biggest hope of the Euro bulls, has to be that the US is poised to step on its own tail in the State of the Union address tonight.

YEN: As we predicted, the March yen managed a rise back above the 112.00 level and we would not think that the upside action has fully run its course yet. In fact, until one can get bullish toward the US equity market, we suspect that the bias in the Yen will remain up. If the Obama Administration lights more fires than it puts out in the speech tonight, that could see the Yen reach up to the 113.50 level before the end of the week. It is still too soon to add to long term Yen put plays.

SWISS: After a fresh new low for the move was rejected overnight, one might get a technical sense that the Swiss has bottomed. However, for the Swiss to bottom probably requires a distinct improvement in the global macro economic outlook and we are not sure if that is in the cards over the coming 36 hours. The March Swiss might need to fill a gap on the charts, with a temporary slide back down to 94.85.

POUND: A pattern of lower highs on the charts would seem to leave the bear camp with an edge today. So far, predictions calling for an annual rise in UK CPI figures had little impact on the Pound. It does seem as if the Pound was bid up off BOE dialogue, that suggested 4th quarter UK GDP figures might come in stronger than initial expectations. Like a number of other currencies, the Pound bulls would seem to need a turn up in global equities, just to throw off an entrenched downward bias.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: While the Canadian has managed to avoid a fresh new low for the move overnight and the BOC offered up some very valuable advice on Bank Reform overnight, the current market isn’t capable of fully checking the slide in the Canadian. Against a back drop of Chinese tightening fears, confusing US policies and a lack of distinctly upbeat economic readings, that would seem to leave the key Commodity currency, the Canadian out of favor. The best thing that can happen for the Canadian bulls, is to see a misguided ongoing washout in the March Canadian down to 93.00 and then one might be able to re-enter the long side of the equation.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Expect the Yen to remain well bid until the latest track of US policy initiatives is unleashed on the marketplace.

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DOLLAR: The Dollar index managed a definitive downside extension in the early action today and that would seem to be the result of ongoing flight to quality liquidation. With the June Dollar Index presented with some technical support at the 82.00 level and the US Housing Starts and Permits information a very critical release today, one should expect a major decision in the market this morning. Adding into the downside bias in the Dollar this morning is an optimistic view toward the German economy from the German ZEW readings. However, without gains in excess of 3% in both US Housing Starts and Permits this morning, the June Dollar index might find it difficult to punch through the critical support zone down at 82.00. In the end, we suspect that the action in the equity markets will be an extremely critical influence on the Dollar and for the Dollar to move to a new lower trading range ahead will probably require an extension of gains in stock prices.

EURO: Surprisingly Euro action this morning is very up beat, as the Dollar decline and favorable German ZEW reading have combined to pump up the Euro. In fact, the German ZEW suggested that the worst of the contraction was past and that expectations managed to rise sharply in the month of May and that really serves to bail out the Euro bulls from the recent concern of a return to sustained global slowing. Critical resistance and an upside breakout point on the charts is seen at 136.68 basis the June Euro today. Like the US stock market, the Euro bull’s probably need to see something positive from the US Housing starts and Permits data to directly extend on the upside.

YEN: It goes without saying that the flight to quality long liquidation pressure is expected to extend in the action today, as US corporate earnings news has added to the bullish global macro economic sentiment that was put back in play in the prior trading session. With the residual baggage of the swine flu situation in Japan and the bad technical action on the Yen charts, it would seem like the June Yen is poised for a slide down to the 103.12 level.

SWISS: Like the Euro, the Swiss is expected to be lifted by broad based macro economic optimism. However, upside momentum in the Swiss looks to be somewhat muted, as the market isn’t completely convinced that the recovery view is going to be entrenched. In order to give off consistently bullish technical signals, the June Swiss needs to respect up trend channel support on the charts at 88.94 today and at 89.13 on Wednesday.

POUND: With the latest flow of positive macro economic views, the June Pound appears to be poised to rise sharply. We have been labeling the Pound as a recovery currency for several weeks and that name will probably resonate with the sharp upward action today. In fact, the June Pound looks to be on track to regain the 200 day moving average up at 156.22 in the coming 24 hours. It is even possible that UK inflation readings overnight are actually adding into the bullish momentum in the Pound.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The June Canadian clearly rejected a recent retest of the 200 day moving average and would now appear to be poised to reach the highest level since early October at some point later this week. As in the Pound, we have been calling the Canadian a recovery currency, for a number of weeks and given the potential extension of the upside in the equity markets, we would not be surprised to see the 87.50 level in the June Canadian become a solid support in the coming week’s action.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: More flight to quality liquidation is expected in the Dollar and the Yen today, with the Dollar/Yen weakness giving the Pound and the Canadian a huge lift.

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DOLLAR: The Dollar continues to see the flight to quality stance in the market tamped down. In fact, after seeing such dire macro economic forecasts early in the week, it appears that the markets are capable of ending the week with a mostly upbeat view and that in turn looks to leave the Dollar in a downward posture on the charts. Surprisingly the Dollar saw no support from comments early this morning from the Fed’s Fisher that there might not be positive growth until early 2010. However, with the Fed’s Fisher also suggesting that overall conditions would get “less worse” as the year progresses clearly leaves the market with an upbeat view. With the market seemingly dodging concerns about the US banking system from early in the week and the recent scheduled US data somewhat positive, the June Dollar Index above 86.00 earlier this week certainly seems to be an expensive level. In fact, we suspect that a slight upward extension in the US equity market later today will serve to press the June Dollar index down toward consolidation support on the charts down at 84.46. In fact, seeing another narrowing of the US Trade Deficit readings today could be seen as a negative to the US Dollar.

EURO: Despite the fact that German February industrial output decline by 2.9% the Euro looks to be catching the benefit of a general decline in global flight to quality sentiment. However, seeing a broad based rally in the international equity markets overnight probably provides the Euro with the most lift this morning. However, analysts continue to suggest that the lack of aggressive stimulus efforts and or quantitative easing moves from the ECB leaves the Euro zone well behind the curve and potentially the European economy well back in the pack of currencies that will see the early signs of recovery. Nonetheless, the Euro looks to win by default and largely because of technical considerations and that could in turn result in the June Euro managing a hard fought rise to 133.63 this session.

YEN: While the Yen is showing some interest in holding up around the prior session’s highs, there would appear to be a lack of interest in the June yen above the 100 level. In fact, since we expect a let down of the classic flight to quality anxiety in the marketplace today, we suspect that the Yen is poised to play a little catch up to the weakness seen in the Dollar in the prior trading session. Near term downside targeting in the June Yen today is seen at 99.60 and perhaps even 99.17 early next week.

SWISS: Perhaps seeing the Swiss unemployment come in unchanged overnight is being seen as a moral victory, but the biggest influence on the Swiss today looks to be the ebb and flow of flight to quality interests. In fact, if the stock market manages a distinct upside move today that could in turn serve to pull the Swiss up toward the initial resistance zone of 87.74 today.

POUND: The Pound is somewhat lost on its near term direction as the currency has managed a tight coiling pattern for most of this week. Traders might decide to go with a breakout of 147.80 and 146.29 in the June Pound but we doubt that the outlook for the global economy today will be favorable enough to give the Pound the capacity to rise back toward this week’s high of 149.62. Some traders will see the action this week as bearish as a pattern of lower highs has unfolded. We doubt that the UK inflation readings released overnight were of much importance but with the Pound recently forging a noted extension off the March rally, it could take a noted improvement in the global economic view in order to give the Pound bulls a definitive edge.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: With some potential key unemployment readings due out this morning and the Canadian managing a recent bounce, the onus would seem to be on the bull camp to get something “Not as bad as expected” in the Canadian Dollar. Some analysts expect the amount of job losses to be less than the prior month and that could be the main bull/bear catalyst today. The prior month showed a loss of 82,600 jobs. We think the odds are good that the Canadian will temporary dip back toward 80.41 today.

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DOLLAR: After a significant upward pulse on the charts yesterday the Dollar appears to be into a profit taking setback this morning. While there was a significant amount of fresh news out from the UK banking sector again overnight, it is clear that flight to quality buying of the Dollar has abated for now. In fact, we suspect that the Dollar will see a further slide in the wake of the scheduled US numbers this morning. Near term downside targeting in the March Dollar is seen at 85.82 in the wake of the US housing starts and permits data this morning. With a large portion of the strength in the Dollar over the last two weeks, coming from evidence of severe international slowing and also from UK banking concerns, it is clear that without the turmoil and fear outside of the US, the Dollar looks to settle back into a weak corrective bias. Longer term up trend channel support off the December and January upward pattern in the Dollar, leaves up trend channel support line today down at 83.97 but that level rises to 84.12 on Friday.

EURO: While the Euro would like to mount a bit of a bounce in the face of patently weak US data flow this morning, the Euro zone produced some discouraging readings overnight in the form of a decline in a French Household Consumption survey and from a noted decline in November industrial orders. Furthermore, the ECB also pointing out ongoing negative spillover into the main economy from the financial sector uncertainty and that would seem to limit the Euro’s capacity to bounce. However, the Euro should be able to garner some light short covering interest in the wake of the soft US numbers, but overall any rally in the Euro should still be considered a rally within a bear market. Near term resistance on the charts is seen up at 130.80 basis the March Euro.

YEN: After a sensational burst on the upside in the prior trading session, the Yen appears to be moderately but perhaps only temporarily overbought. However, the path of least resistance remains up in the Yen, with negative talk from the BOJ overnight almost completely discounted. With lingering banking sector troubles still present under the surface we have to think that the March Yen is poised to return to the 115 level in the coming trading sessions. However, traders can’t rule out the prospect of a setback to 112.35 before the market returns to the classic flight to quality posture.

SWISS: The Swiss remains in a downward motion on the charts. In fact, little seems to have changed in the Swiss and unless the Dollar weakens significantly in the wake of its data flow today we doubt that the March Swiss is capable of mounting a sustained bounce back above the 86.96 level. Sell rallies until a major shift in global macro economic sentiment is seen.

POUND: While the aggressive pressure toward the UK banking sector has abated somewhat, one doesn’t get the sense that the market is finished with the concern of a major failure in that sector of the UK economy. However, news that the UK wasn’t planning to totally take control of its bank sector would seem to leave the market fearful of even more turmoil ahead in the UK Banking sector. While some Euro zone officials have expressed concern about the ultra low Pound exchange rate, it would not seem like there is a move a foot to halt the slide in the Pound. Therefore, the path of least resistance remains down with the Pound likely to settle in below the 2001 spike low.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Canadian appears to be giving off a weak bottoming signal on the charts this morning but the sideways consolidation action might be more of a function of temporary weakness in the US Dollar, than it is a bullish view toward the Canadian currency. In fact, with the threat of global slowing remaining in place and in some cases expected to show even more weakness ahead, that should mean rallies in the Canadian Dollar should still be considered a selling opportunity.

DOLLAR: After showing some initial strength this morning the Dollar seems to have fallen back from its highs into the US session. With no scheduled economic data out from the US today, the currency markets will have to garner their direction from the kick off to the US earnings cycle and perhaps the ebb and flow of talk from Washington on the massive stimulus package. With the January 6th Commitment of Traders with Options report for US Dollar showing the Non-commercial position to be net long 5,525 contracts, with the Non-reportable position net short 798 contracts, that made the “combined” spec and fund position net long 4,727 contracts as of early last week. With the sharp slide in the wake of the COT report last week, we suspect that the Dollar around last week’s lows was mostly balanced technically and that might serve to keep some of the pressure off the Dollar early this week. In the near term, we suspect that the markets will be looking for the biggest government stimulus effort and that money will flow toward that currency. While the Germans are making noised about a plan, the US seems to be out ahead of the pack. In short, a slight upward bias in the Dollar is expected this morning, as the scheduled corporate earnings news won’t be released until after the stock market close today.

EURO: With the Euro initially forging a fresh new low for the move overnight and making the slight decline in the wake of the somewhat poor US unemployment report from last week, we have to leave the path of least resistance pointing to the downside in the Euro. Critical support in the March Euro this morning is seen at 132.83, but even lower support down at 132.50 is possible this morning in the wake of weakness in global equity prices this morning. While the January 6th Commitment of Traders with Options report for Euro showed the Non-commercial position to be net short 4,210 contracts, with the Non-reportable position net long 14,627 contracts, that made the “combined” spec and fund position net long only 10,417 contracts as of early last week. However, with the Euro in the wake of the COT report falling as much as 200 points, below the level where the COT report was measured, we suspect that the Euro is now seeing only a minimally overbought technical position. As suggested in the Dollar coverage this morning, we suspect that money will continue to pull away from the Euro zone, unless an overly aggressive stimulus plan surfaces from the Euro zone.

YEN: The Yen seems to be picking up renewed flight to quality buying again and that isn’t surprising considering the overall state of the global economy. In fact, seeing the March Yen reach back to the highest level since December 29th this morning clearly seems to suggest that the bulls are in control. The old up trend channel support line up at 111.86 is possibly a target for the March Yen, but without an active US report flow today to fan the concerns of US slowing and in turn kick up aggressive flight to quality buying interest in Yen, it could take a couple days for the Yen to approach the 112.00 level.

SWISS: Like the Euro, the Swiss remains out of favor and until there is a reason to shift macro economic psychology in the Swiss economy into a more optimistic posture, we have to leave the edge with the bear camp. In fact, we would be surprised if the March Swiss was unable to reach down to a prior key low down at 88.70 in the coming trading session. Not even a favorable interest rate differential expectation between the Swiss and the Euro zone is serving to support the Swiss and that would seem to leave the bias pointing downward in the Swiss.

POUND: The honeymoon in the Pound appears to be over as the markets continue to grabble with the prospect of more serious slowing ahead in the global economy. While the Pound could have been supported by CBI calls this morning for some form of guarantee for UK bank loans, the Pound enters the session today significantly above the late December lows and given the prospect of even more severe slowing ahead, we have to think that the Pound will retest 145 before it returns to last week’s highs.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: Like the Pound, the Canadian seemed to have become overbought recently and out of touch with the evidence of severe global slowing being presented in the marketplace. With precious metals and energy prices weaker this morning and the US Dollar showing signs of initial strength, we have to think that the March Canadian is poised for a slide back below 82.50 early this week.

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DOLLAR: The Dollar attempted a quasi upside pulse on Wednesday and periodic strength in the Dollar over the last two weeks has served to dampen the confidence of the bear camp. As in the equity markets, we think that the latest GMAC developments have given the Dollar a temporary lift. We also think that a couple slightly better than expected US economic reports earlier this week prompted some short covering in the Dollar, but we don’t get the sense that the Dollar is poised to see fresh sustained out right buying. In fact, with a US ISM manufacturing Index reading due out this morning, one should expect resistance at 82.67 in the March Dollar Index to be rather solid. Some players suggest that year end short covering in the Dollar and year end long profit taking in the Euro, were largely responsible for the recovery bounce in the Dollar off this week’s early lows and that would suggest that today will bring about a resumption of the downside effort in the Dollar in the coming trading sessions.

EURO: Certainly some year end profit taking served to knock down the Euro on Wednesday, but if that was the main reason behind the slide Wednesday, that should clear the way for a recovery bounce in the Euro later today. However, at least initially the market seems to remain off balance and vulnerable to more selling, especially if the US stock market manages to trade positive early today. Therefore, one might expect an attempt to retest the Wednesday low of 138.17, but we think that weakness in the Euro in the coming trading sessions should be viewed as a buying opportunity for a possible rally in the Euro later next week into the next monthly US Non farm payroll report.

YEN: Like a number of other financial markets, the Yen seems to be under a slight bit of pressure because of a temporary tamping down of global macro economic anxiety. In other words, a couple slightly better than expected economic readings and residual holiday trading activity seems to have pushed the safe haven buying temporarily to the sidelines. In fact, in the face of a slight upward extension in the US equity market today, it is possible that the March Yen will see a temporary slide below critical support on the charts at 110.08. As in the Euro, a slide in the Yen in the coming two trading sessions should be seen as a buying opportunity in the Yen ahead of the next US unemployment report.

SWISS: As in the Euro and Yen, the flight to quality angle is simply not playing in the Swiss early today. Therefore, we suspect that the Swiss is poised to see a slight downside extension in the trade today. In fact, the failure to hold above 94.00 might turn up the technical liquidation bias in the Swiss early in the action today.

POUND: With news that UK lending improved that has to take some of the fundamental pressure off the Pound. However, the Pound didn’t show much in the way of a bounce off the favorable news in the early going today and that suggests the overall downtrend bias in the Pound remains in place. In fact, news that Halifax house prices declined sharply again and the expectation of another weak US ISM reading this morning, should leave the overall bias in the Pound pointing downward.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The coiling pattern in the Canadian continues but in looking at the chart formation, one does come away with a generally bearish bias in the Canadian Dollar. With oil prices moderately lower and a host of physical commodities showing initial weakness today we have to think that the March Canadian is poised to fall toward consolidation support down around 81.60.

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