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DOLLAR: While the Dollar has not seen much in the way of sharp movement during overnight trading, prices have held their ground so far this morning. With little in the way of recovery from global equities, there may be some residual safe haven support holding with the Dollar going into today’s session. Today’s set of US economic numbers may not have the potential to disappoint the market as badly as yesterday’s Existing Home Sales number, so the amount of further flight to quality for the Dollar may be limited at best. With US longer-term yields continuing to hold at historically low levels, the Dollar may be hard-pressed to hold on to this week’s strength for an extended period. For today, the Dollar should find resistance near the 83.60 level but the market may see a pullback over the next few days.
EURO: After a quick run higher in the wake of a surprisingly good business sentiment number from Germany, the September Euro has given back ground and drifted back into negative territory. Yesterday’s late downgrade of Irish sovereign debt continues to cast a long shadow, but cannot have come as too much of a surprise given the ongoing debt problems within EU peripheral nations. Even so, it may take more than improving sentiment to lift the market above and beyond this recent down move. Look for the September Euro to find support near the 1.2625 level, but any stronger move lower will need additional news to trigger it.
YEN: While there has been an expected pullback from the lofty highs of yesterday, the September Yen remains well into 15-year high territory going into the opening. Rhetoric from Japanese officials has had little effect in turning the September Yen’s direction around, but last night’s lackluster trade number may be a quick reminder of how damaging a stronger Yen could be to Japanese exports. The markets may be goading Japan into some concrete action, but until that occurs the September Yen is likely to hold these levels. If they do take some sort of action, then long put strategies are likely to start accumulating value in a hurry.
SWISS: The problems from the Euro zone have been able to lift the September Swiss up close to new high ground this morning, but the market appears to be reluctant to break through to the upside just yet. The market may not have much longer to wait, as Swiss economic numbers later on in the week should help to confirm a relative advantage over the rest of Europe. Look for the September Swiss to find resistance near the 97.50 level, but any pullbacks could be seen as buying opportunities by more aggressive traders.
POUND: There has been little in the way of recovery from the September Pound, which remains down near the low end of the recent sell off. While decent UK economic numbers have been there for a while, sentiment needs to improve dramatically in order to turn the market back towards the upside. Look for the September Pound to find support near 1.5375 level this morning, but we may need to see even stronger global equity markets before the Pound can turn itself fully around.
CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Sept Canadian continues to erode, but at least has avoided testing yesterday’s spike lows so far today. The benefits from the attempted hostile takeover of Potash have been eroding as well, with the elevated risk concerns and weak Canadian data keeping the Sept Canadian squarely on the defensive. Look for the Sept Canadian to find support near the 94.00 level today, but the market will need to send some signs of strength from the Canadian economy before a distinct turn back to the upside can be contemplated.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar may hold this current safe haven support today, but any sort of rebound in global equities leaves the market vulnerable to a pullback. The September Swiss appears to be on the verge of posting new highs this morning.



