Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Good weather for harvest in South America, speculative long liquidation selling and forecast for a hefty supply ahead has helped to pressure the market. Brazil supply officials from Conab pegged the Brazil soybean crop at a new record high 67.57 million tonnes this morning, up more than 10 million tonnes from last year and up from the latest USDA forecast of 66 million tonnes. Traders indicate that El Nino has caused palm production in Malaysia to be negatively impacted and that dry weather into the second quarter could also cause disruption in production. February production was thought to be down near 6% from last year. Big meal deliveries and talk of slow export demand helped to pressure the meal market overnight. Meal exports from India in February were just 218,748 tonnes, down 42.6% from last year and this pushed cumulative exports for the first five months of the marketing year to 1.3 million tonnes, down 43.4% from last year. The soybean complex started the week on a positive note with all three markets trading mostly higher throughout the day. Weekly soybean export inspections, however, were below trade expectations at just 30.9 million bushels. Cumulative inspections stand at 81.3% of the USDA’s export projection for 2009/10 versus a 5-year average of 69.1%. Still, inspections need to average just 10.1 million bushels each week to reach the USDA’s projection. Traders see higher crush and export numbers for Wednesday morning’s USDA update. Traders are looking for the USDA to lower its estimate of 2009/10 ending stocks to near 195 million bushels. Ending stocks were lowered to 210 million bushels in February from 245 the prior month. Argentina and Brazil are experiencing mostly dry conditions with scattered rains forecast into this week in southern growing areas of Argentina and in northern growing areas of Brazil. The rains in Brazil are expected to be light enough to cause only minimal harvest delays with about 1/3rd of the crop there already harvested.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The technical picture remains weak for meal and soybeans with the break under the February low for May meal leaving 250.80 as next downside objective. Selling resistance for July soybeans drops down to 954 3/4 and 962 1/2 with 893 as next objective. Use 881 3/4 as next objective for November soybeans with 929 1/4 and 933 1/4 as selling resistance.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Cold and storming weather over the long weekend supported ideas that livestock feed usage is up and ideas that the tail end of harvest has been disrupted for corn and the corn rally helped support the soybean complex overnight. Traders see a bullish macro-economic view for the China economy and a positive world growth view as supportive forces for commodities in general and a weak tone to the US dollar and firm metals market added to the positive tone overnight. South America weather remains mostly a negative factor for the grain markets as Brazil and Argentina look to maintain favorable soil moisture conditions this week with scattered rains. The soybean marked closed lower on Thursday despite continued signs of strong demand from China but the market took out Thursday’s highs in the overnight session. The weekly export sales report showed stronger than expected sales in soybeans and oil and in line with expectations in meal. Net sales for soybeans were 1.369 million tonnes. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 84.3% of the USDA forecast for the entire season as compared with the 5 year average of 60.3%. Net meal sales came in at 254,200 tonnes which pushed cumulative sales to 62.9% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 41.7%. Net oil sales came in at 46,700 tonnes which pushed cumulative sales to 53.3% of the USDA forecast versus a 5 year average of 31.9%. Traders continue to await a shift in China demand away from US soybeans and toward South America new crop supply soon. Traders also anticipate the US government to extend the bio-diesel blenders tax credit in early 2010 and this has already been priced so anything different would likely impact the market. Traders seem to be raising their estimates for Brazil soybean production by 1-3 million tonnes above the December USDA forecast of a record 63 million tonnes.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The market is seeing an oversold technical bounce but the upside seems limited given the hefty supply outlook. March soybean selling resistance 1024 1/2 and more resistance at 1028 with 986 and 982 (50% of Oct-Dec rally) as next objectives. March meal looks to continue to push lower with 289.30 as next downside objective with resistance at 304.40. For traders who want to trade from the long side, March soybean oil support comes in at 38.74 and 38.49 with 39.48 and maybe 39.92 as near-term upside targets.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market saw a decent recovery to the upside yesterday despite weakness in other grains and mixed outside market signals. Traders are torn between the bullish news of strong upfront export sales for soybeans and products which might hold prices higher and the outlook for increasing US and world ending stocks for the coming season. While traders have talked that open interest might ease off into the end of the year, the open interest trend remains up. Since the November 10th USDA reports which showed expanding stocks for the 2009/10 season, open interest is up 62,313 contracts to 482,169. Argentina looks mostly dry with a few scattered rains early next week but conditions have improved due to recent rains. Brazil conditions look near ideal and even the southern wet areas look to dry out over the near-term. Dryness in Argentina could start to get problematic if it extends for more than a week. Statistics Canada estimated the 2009/10 canola crop 15% higher than their previous estimate at 11.8 million tonnes. This was about 1.0 million tonnes above trade expectations which was seen as a negative development. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 722,600 tonnes, below 1 million for the first time in one month as there are indications that China may slow purchases over the near-term. China has already booked more than 17 million tonnes of US soybeans for the season (which began on September 1st) as compared with the USDA estimate of total imports for the season to reach 40.5 million tonnes. The China National Grain and Oils Information Center has indicated that China imports in December and January alone will be near 9.6 million tonnes and that China could see reduced demand from crushers to book more imports anytime soon as buyers will be concentrating on booking South America soybeans for February and deferred shipment from now on. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 78.3% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010 versus a 5 year average of 52.7%. Sales need to average just 193,000 tonnes each week to reach the USDA forecast. The Census Bureau released its latest US soy oil stocks report yesterday. Stocks as of the end of October stand at 2.723 billion pounds, down from 2.742 billion at the end of September. Oil used for methyl ester (bio-fuel) in October totaled 212.3 million pounds versus 205.8 million the month before.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The longer-term supply situation is still negative and the market is still under the negative technical influence of the December 1st reversal. If China demand slows, the market could see a significant setback. Look for good selling resistance for March soybeans at 1061 with 1035 as light support and then 1019 3/4 and 1004 3/4 as near-term downside targets. March meal selling resistance is near 309.30 with 294.90 as downside target.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: News of potential debt problems for Dubai and the possible chain reaction through the global economy helped spark the sharply lower trade in soybeans and other key commodity markets overnight. A survey from the China National Grains and Oils Information Centre indicates that China import demand is likely to slow over the near-term as the market absorbs big US supply flow for the next several months. On the other hand, there is also news out of China that the country will start stockpiling soybeans purchased from producers beginning December 1st and lasting through April. This is a similar program to last year and China will pay producers 1% higher than last year to secure inventory. In addition, the European Union is expected to approve the import of GMO’s in the next few days which could cause a resumption of large-scale imports of US soybeans and meal as early as December. European buying may help offset some of the slowdown in China buying of US soybeans as traders believe China has already booked US soybeans through March and future needs would be met by South America. The soybean market saw rollercoaster action on Wednesday amid light volume. Prices moved higher in conjunction with new lows for the year in the dollar and a new all-time high in gold. Funds were buyers in soybeans and traders said that inter-commodity spreading between soybeans and corn and between meal and oil continued to be major features on the holiday-shortened week. The Census Bureau released its October crush report Wednesday and was in line with expectations at 163.06 million bushels. Oil stocks were below expectations at 2.727 billion pounds which may have helped support the oil market while meal stocks were above expectations at 444,940 short tons which may have helped pressure meal to lower on the day into the close. Weather continues to be wet in South America from eastern Argentina through the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul. Forecasters indicate that this is in line with a typical El Nino Pattern. Vietnam bought 20,000 tonnes of South American meal for January shipment. Weekly export sales will be released this morning.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The soybean market needs to absorb very negative outside market influences and is still operating under the negative technical influence of the November 23rd reversal. The market is overbought and July soybeans face a burdensome supply ahead. Aggressive short-term traders could look at selling July soybeans at the 1056-1059 zone with 1031 1/2 and 1018 1/4 as support. May oil selling resistance is near 41.10 with 39.50 and 38.98 support. For May Meal, selling resistance comes in near 300.20 and again at 302.80 with 291.20 and 287.30 as next targets.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Yesterday’s sharp advance did not dampen buying enthusiasm overnight. Traders said that the latest support came from a late break in the dollar index overnight after the index had initially traded modestly higher. Wet weather is keeping harvest pace on the sluggish side with more unwelcome rain expected in the Delta today and into the western Midwest by tomorrow. Traders indicate that China has shifted its buying interest to South America in recent days with a concentration on post-harvest delivery slots in April and May. They are thought to still need US cargoes for late 2009 and early 2010 delivery. However, China’s announcement to start the week that they remain committed to a policy of stockpiling domestic soybeans raises questions about buying patterns according to one analyst. He indicated that a combination of factors could drive China back to the US over the next few months. These include a weak dollar which makes US soybeans less expensive and generally profitable crush margins for processors in China. In addition, China tried to sell its own soybeans this summer at prices that were considerably higher than current levels in Chicago futures markets. This could indicate that the government price support level will remain oriented to the high side which would again make the price of imports relatively cheap. Deliveries against the October contracts were zero again in meal this morning and 263 contracts in oil. Total oil deliveries so far this month stand at 9,085.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The plunge to a new low in the dollar index late last week helped to reset traders’ minds in the direction of inflation. However, the lack of follow through in the days since then leaves soybean traders looking for a reason to buy this morning. They may not find one until either: 1) the dollar resumes its downtrend, or 2) China starts buying again. In recent weeks, China has put out the word that its buying will drop sharply in October. However, they announced at the start of the current week that they remain committed to stockpiling domestic supplies of soybeans, rapeseed and corn. There is no word on the prices that they will pay for soybeans or the amounts that might ultimately be bought, but this suggests that the pace of export sales in soybeans may continue to be strong in coming weeks and months. Soybeans may hit the pause button today, but more buyers will be waiting in the wings if we move sharply lower. First support today is at 979 1/2 to 984 in the November soybean contract with the next support near 960. First resistance is now near 1015 to 1016.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Traders can key off today’s price action. If we hold above 985 in the November contract and close higher, assume a further advance tomorrow. However a break below 980, especially late in the day, would point to a move down to as low as 945 to 950. Look for January meal to continue to gain on July meal. Support for January meal comes in at 301.10 and 297.40 with 309.70 as next resistance.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Forecasts of good weather are dominating the news this morning along with weakness in crude oil and equities. Temperatures in the Midwest are expected to return to normal this week and then move to above normal through the middle of September. Experts indicate that these would be ideal conditions for the soybean crop. Most of the soybean crop is past the point of needing more moisture. It now simply needs enough heat to finish developing and to take it past the danger point from an early frost. One analyst pointed out that the theoretical amount of damage that could be done by a moderate freeze will start to decline substantially by the middle of September if temperatures stay at normal to above normal levels until then. Heavy rains fell in India’s soybean belt over the past few days. This gave the crop a major boost according to local sources, but more rain is needed over the next three weeks. The CFTC released its latest Commitments of Traders Report on Friday and it left the report’s format unchanged for now. The latest report was for the week ending August 25th and it showed mixed activity by funds. In soybeans, index funds were net buyers of 1,154 contracts. However, trend-following funds were net sellers of 3,705 contracts to decrease their net long position to 41,465. The trend-followers have moved to the net short side in corn in recent weeks and they have a record large net short position in wheat. In soybeans, they have been gradually moving to reduce their long position since early this summer. In oil, index funds were buyers of a scant 252 contracts. Trend-followers were net buyers of a robust 6,436 which reduced their net short position to 5,316. In meal, large non-commercial traders were net buyers of 1,272 contracts to increase their net long position to 38,375. Today was First Notice day for September futures contracts. Deliveries were Zero in soybeans and meal with oil deliveries starting at 7,640 contracts.

WEATHER: The short term forecast calls for a warm up to near normal temperature levels by the end of this week with a move to above normal through as late as mid September. Drought conditions have expanded in NE China according to government sources. Monsoon rains improved in India in recent days, especially in the soybean belt in central India where rains have been heavy in recent days.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The weather forecast is particularly important in that there is still the potential for a big boost in yield from the USDA’s August Crop Report, which would add substantially to the record soybean crop already being predicted by the USDA. Rains in India’s soybean belt in recent days are also adding to the potential world supply. Traders will be looking to see if China responds to a lower market with another round of big purchases to start the week. If they do, we may simply test support levels. However, if China is not a substantial buyer on the break, we could easily move to the July lows or lower in fairly short order. First support is in a fairly broad area from 970 to 982 in the November soybean contract, with the next support near 958 to 959. Resistance has dropped to near 999 and then 1025 to 1030.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: A shift to warmer weather through the middle of September beginning today has helped shift the short-term trend from up to down and until there are more cold weather threats on the horizon, sellers could be more active. The 100-day moving average is at 981 1/2 today and a close under this level could attract more selling. Selling resistance is at 998 1/4 with 940 1/4 and 910 1/2 as next support. December meal selling resistance is at 307.20 with 290.20 as next support.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The USDA’s crop production and supply/demand reports were considered supportive on the supply side in soybeans yesterday. The market’s initial price reaction to the report was weak, but prices rallied during mid session to finish modestly higher on the day. November soybeans then took out yesterday’s high in the overnight session to trade at the highest level since June 15th. Traders said that prices are being boosted this morning by a very supportive outside market configuration. On yesterday’s report, the USDA pegged the 2009/10 soybean yield at 41.7 bushels per acre versus 42.6 in July. This was below trade expectations near 42.2. Harvested acreage was increased by a modest 300,000 to 76.8 million. Total production was estimated at 3.199 billion bushels, down from 3.260 billion in July and below trade expectations of about 3.225 billion bushels. Ending stocks for new crop 2009/2010 were pegged at 210 million bushels compared to 250 million last month and trade expectations near 215 million. World ending stocks were dropped to 50.32 million tonnes from 51.83 in July. The USDA announced a sale of 113,000 tonnes of soybeans to China yesterday for 2009/10 delivery. It included 58,000 tonnes previously listed as sold to an unknown destination, leaving 55,000 tonnes of the announced sale as new business. China indicates that drought conditions have worsened in key growing areas of NE China with three times as much crop area now affected by drought in that region since July 31st. Temperatures remain at normal to above normal levels in the US Midwest as we approach the end of the week, but dryness is expected in most of the region through at least Saturday. The 6-10 day forecast calls for below normal temperatures across much of the Midwest, reducing concern over potential heat damage to the developing US soybean crop. This concern had been a major market factor last week. Diminished monsoon rains in India now seem to be focusing on rice-growing areas in the NE of that country with soybeans areas mostly seeing adequate moisture. Deliveries against the August contracts remained at zero in meal with another 7 contracts delivered in soybeans. This takes the soybean total for the month to 17 contracts. Oil deliveries were 329 contracts with the total for the month now at 22,898.

WEATHER: US temperatures continue at normal to above normal levels in many growing areas with more dryness now expected late this week and into Sunday than had previously been forecast. The 6-10 day forecast now calls for below normal temperatures across most of the Midwest and the central and northern plains in the US with above normal precipitation across the southern Midwest, SE and much of the Delta. Fears of a frost in Canada later next week appear to be ebbing. Concern over diminished monsoon rains in India now seem to be focusing on rice-growing areas in the NE of that country with soybeans areas mostly seeing adequate moisture.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The USDA’s August crop reports are already old news, with outside markets running the show in the grains this morning. Fundamentally, the market is supported by the fact that soybean demand is still on target to outdistance supply until a good chunk of the new soybean crop is harvested. If prices do not go up in the meantime, farmers may be reluctant to sell in the early stages of harvest, further tightening supply. In addition, the world market must wait until March at the earliest for South American new crop supplies to hit export channels. Right now, the market is assuming that soybean acreage will be up in South America and that growing conditions there will be favorable. If either of those assumptions are downgraded between now and early 2010, buyers such as China will start to increase, rather than decrease, their buying and stockpiling of US soybeans to compensate.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: November soybeans appear poised to move through the June highs sooner rather than later and we would set the next upside objective at 1150.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The July soybean contract made a new high for the move early in the overnight session, but a subsequent rally in the dollar brought selling pressure to both old and new crop soybean contracts as well as soybean oil. Traders indicate that the soybean market is trying to adjust to trends in the dollar, variable US weather, a changing supply and demand outlook in the Chinese soybean market and a USDA Supply/Demand Report later this week. That report is expected to show a small drop in 2008/09 ending stocks for soybeans, although one analyst said that last week’s cancellation of soybean sales by China may convince the USDA to hold the line on ending stocks at 130 million bushels for the time being. Stocks are expected to be down as much as 20 million bushels for 2009/10. The Commitments of Traders for the week ending June 2nd showed substantial fund buying in oil, but mixed trade with only minor net changes in oil. In soybeans, index funds were net buyers of 1,449 contracts while trend-following funds were net sellers of just 840. In oil, index funds were net buyers of 3,812 contracts while the trend-followers were net buyers of 7,285 to increase their net long position to nearly 10,000 contracts. In meal, large non-commercial traders were net buyers of 4,250 contracts to increase their net long position to 57,528. Traders in Malaysia are also waiting for a major report on Wednesday that is expected to show another drop in ending stocks for crude palm oil in May. This could push CPO stocks to near a 2-year low, but demand numbers are expected to be weak, and that helped to push palm oil lower by as much as 2.6% overnight.

WEATHER: The past three days saw showers and thunderstorms across Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Amounts were from 1/4 to 1 1/4 inches. Other areas of the corn and soybean belt saw scattered showers to mostly dry conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again in the NW and northern corn and soybean belt today as well as in Missouri with amounts of generally up to 1 inch. This system is expected to migrate mostly south and east over the course of the week bringing scattered showers. However, Friday through Sunday should bring a welcome dry spell to much of the Midwest. Rains are expected in the NE half of North Dakota, slowing planting progress in the NE quadrant of that state where farmers are doing the latest planting of spring wheat. After that, dry weather is expected through the end of the weekend.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The fact that the July/Nov spread traded back near the May 19th high in the spread overnight and this is a positive price indicator. So is the continued strength of meal versus oil and the fact that July soybeans moved to the highest level since September overnight. The dollar will bring some selling pressure if it continues to move higher, but nearby soybeans have adjusted well to the recent surge in the dollar as well as a flurry of sales cancellations by China. First support remains at 1200 3/4 in the July contract. The next support is at 1182 and 1169. Resistance is at 1239 3/4 and at 1260.