SOYBEANS

The USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand Report this morning was considered neutral to slightly supportive for the soybean complex with the market called steady to slightly higher on the open. The USDA pegged the 2009/10 soybean yield at 42.3 bushels per acre versus 41.7 last month and trade expectations near 42.3. US production was pegged at 3.245 billion bushels as compared with trade expectations near 3.25 billion and last months USDA estimate at 3.199 billion. US ending stocks for the 2009/2010 season were pegged at 220 million bushels as compared with last months estimate of 210 million bushels and trade expectations near 225 million. Old crop ending stocks were at 110 million which was unchanged from last month and up from expectations but is still the lowest since 1976/77. The USDA raised demand numbers for new crop with crush up 20 million bushels to 1.69 billion and exports up 15 million bushels to 1.28 billion bushels. The USDA raised China import demand slightly. World ending stocks were pegged at 50.53 million tonnes compared to 50.32 in August and 51.83 in July.

PRICE OUTLOOK: A lack of bearish news on the supply front and an adjustment higher in both export and crush demand is supportive. Close-in support for November soybeans is 925 3/4 with 951 1/4 as first good resistance.

CORN

The USDA Supply/Demand report was considered slightly supportive for corn with the market called 2 cents higher. The USDA pegged 2009/10 US corn yield at 161.9 bushels per acre versus 159.5 bushels per acre on the August report. Traders were looking for a yield number near 161.4. Total production was pegged at 12.955 billion bushels compared to 12.761 billion bushels in August and right on the trade estimates ahead of the report. Corn ending stocks for 2009/10 were pegged at 1.635 billion bushels compared to last month’s estimate of 1.621 billion and trade expectations near 1.77 billion bushels. While supply was about as expected, the USDA raised feed usage by 50 million bushels and exports by 100 million bushels. This pushed total usage to 13.025 billion bushels from 12.045 billion last year and 12.737 billion two years ago. World ending stocks were pegged at 139.1 million tonnes from 141.5 million last month and 144.7 million last year.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The report offered no new surprises from a supply perspective but the jump in demand helped hold ending stocks well under trade expectations to help support. The market is operating under the positive influence of the September 8th reversal and the report may support a bounce to 330 1/4 with close-in support at 312 for December corn.

WHEAT

The USDA’s August Supply/Demand and World Production reports were considered neutral to positive for wheat with the opening call steady to 3 cents higher. US numbers were all left unchanged from the August Supply/Demand, including the spring wheat number. Ending stocks for all wheat were left unchanged at 743 million bushels as compared with trade expectations for a jump of near 30 million bushels. Spring wheat production was unchanged at 511 million bushels. In contrast to the unchanged US numbers, world wheat production was increased to 663.72 million tonnes versus 659.29 in August. World ending stocks were increased by a similar amount to 186.61 million tonnes versus 183.56 last month. Australia, Argentina and Canada wheat production numbers were all left unchanged, while the EU-27 was raised by over 2 million tonnes to account for most of the gain in ending stocks.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Traders have been focusing on increased world wheat supplies rather than the US spring wheat crop in recent days and today’s report confirmed the market’s concerns over the world supply. While the wheat market could see a bounce after today’s report, this is likely to be a selling opportunity unless the lower dollar brings a substantial and fairly immediate increase in export demand.

CORN:

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 757,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 577,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,334,700.

Cumulative corn sales stand at 101.6% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 98.3%.

WHEAT:

Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 342,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 342,300.

For wheat, cumulative sales stand at 22.7% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 31.0%. Sales of 426,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

SOY COMPLEX:

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 320,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 382,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 702,000.

As of July 16, cumulative soybean sales stand at 101.4% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 99.9%.

Meal sales came in at 157,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 35,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 192,700.

Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 85.2% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 82.9%. Sales of 110,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Soybean oil sales came in at 17,500 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and -6,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 11,500.

Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 79.7% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 94.4%. Sales of 19,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON:

Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at -1,500 running bales for the current marketing year and 51,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 49,700.

Cumulative cotton sales stand at 106.7% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 111.1%.

BEEF:

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending July 16 came in at 9,000 metric tonnes making it 292,500 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 21,900 metric tonnes and 346,900 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 540,700 metric tonnes.

CORN:

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 1,225,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 116,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,341,200.

As of April 23, cumulative corn sales stand at 86.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 82.1%. Sales of 312,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

WHEAT:

Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 142,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 108,800 for the next marketing year for a total of 251,200.

As of April 23, cumulative wheat sales stand at 97.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 96.4%. Sales of 107,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

SOY COMPLEX:

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 834,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 335,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,170,100.

As of April 23, cumulative soybean sales stand at 96.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 92.6%. Sales of 61,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 293,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 100 for the next marketing year for a total of 293,100.

Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 71.9% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 69.4%. Sales of 94,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at 31,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 36,600. Sales stand at 84.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 87.2%. Sales of 5,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON:

Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at 212,300 running bales for the current marketing year and 53,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 266,200.

As of April 23, cumulative cotton sales stand at 103.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 94.8%.

BEEF:

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending April 23 came in at 6,200 metric tonnes making it 190,800 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 7,800 metric tonnes and 219,200 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 334,200 metric tonnes.

CORN:

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 440,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 440,600.

As of March 12, cumulative corn sales stand at 70.7% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 72.1%. Sales of 512,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

WHEAT:

Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 213,800 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 22,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 235,800.

As of March 12, cumulative wheat sales stand at 93.2% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 89.7%. Sales of 159,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

SOY COMPLEX:

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 143,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 196,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 339,800.

As of March 12, cumulative soybean sales stand at 87.0% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 87.6%. Sales of 169,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 33,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 40,800 for the next marketing year for a total of 74,200.

As of March 12, cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 60.0% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 61.3%. Sales of 106,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at -8,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of -8,000.

As of March 12, cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 58.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 77.9%. Sales of 10,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON:

Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at 204,200 running bales for the current marketing year and 5,400 for the next marketing year for a total of 209,600.

As of March 12, cumulative cotton sales stand at 93.6% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 80.5%. Sales of 36,000 running bales are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

BEEF:

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending March 12 came in at 13,300 metric tonnes making it 147,300 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 12,300 metric tonnes and 162,700 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 251,800 metric tonnes.

CORN:

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 1,107,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 200 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,107,900.

As of January 22, cumulative corn sales stand at 53.3% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 60.1%. Sales of 654,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

WHEAT:

Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 23,500 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and -80,000 for the next marketing year for a total of -56,500.

As of January 22, cumulative wheat sales stand at 82.1% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 80.1%. Sales of 264,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

SOY COMPLEX:

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 526,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 6,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 532,200.

As of January 22, cumulative soybean sales stand at 80.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 77.1%. Sales of 184,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 201,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 201,700.

Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 47.4% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 52.7%. Sales of 112,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at 21,500 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 21,500.

Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 32.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 61.0%. Sales of 15,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON:

Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at 107,200 running bales for the current marketing year and 6,600 for the next marketing year for a total of 113,800.

As of January 22, cumulative cotton sales stand at 76.9% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 66.6%. Sales of 95,000 running bales are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

BEEF:

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending January 22 came in at 7,800 metric tonnes making it 74,100 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 30,100 metric tonnes and 109,800 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 139,500 metric tonnes.

Below is a sample of our coverage of the major industry reports. To get more indepth coverage of this report and many more, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

EIA crude stocks rose 1.2 million barrels and are now 39.463 million barrels above year ago stock levels. Also, EIA crude stocks stand 20.9 million barrels above the 16 year average. Over the last 4 weeks, crude stocks are up a combined 5.274 million barrels. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 9.729 million barrels per day compared to 10.485 million barrels per day the previous week. The refinery operating rate stood at 85.23% up 0.66 from last week and compared to last year’s rate of 85.23% and the 5yr average rate of 88.8%. Total product demand over the past 4 weeks was down 4% compared to year ago.

EIA distillate stocks rose 6.346 million barrels and stand at 14.3 million barrels above last year’s level. Distillate demand stood at 3.654 million barrels per day compared to 4.318 million barrels per day the previous week and 562,000 barrels per day below year ago. Heating oil stocks rose 363,000 barrels and stand at 40.624 million barrels, which leaves stocks 4.318 above year ago. Distillate demand over the past 4 weeks was down 2.4% compared to year ago.

EIA gasoline stocks rose 2.1 million barrels and are now 1.250 million barrels above the 16 year average. Compared to year ago levels, gasoline stocks are at a 1.751 million barrel deficit. The net change in gas stocks over the last 4 weeks has been a rise of 9.55 million barrels. Gas demand stood at 8.758 million barrels per day which is 358,000 barrels per day below year ago. Gasoline imports came in at 797,000 barrels per day compared to 852,000 barrels per day the previous week. Gasoline demand over the past 4 weeks was down 2.1% compared to year ago.

View our complete report.