The Hightower Report

Corn

The USDA Supply/Demand Report this morning was considered supportive against expectations given a lower ending stocks estimate but production and yield estimates came in higher than expected. The market is called 3-5 higher on the open. Average yield was pegged at 165 bushels per acre as compared with 163.5 last month and this pushed corn production up to 13.365 billion bushels, up 120 million from last month and up about 90 million from expectations. The USDA pegged the 2009/10 corn ending stocks at 1.426 billion bushels which was about 45 million below expectations. As a result of lower beginning stocks and a jump of 100 million bushels in the export forecast, 2010/11 ending stocks are now pegged at just 1.312 billion bushels from 1.373 billion last month and 1.573 billion the previous month. This is a stocks/usage number of 9.7% which has been under 10% just two other times since 1973. World corn ending stocks were revised down by about 2 million tonnes from last month to 139.2 million tonnes. China production was left unchanged at 166 million tonnes. Of more concern could be the revision down in world coarse grain ending stocks to 172 million tonnes from 180 million last month, 187 million last year and 193.8 million two years ago. This opens the door for a revision higher in corn exports ahead as the US makes up for losses in the FSU region. Production in this region was revised down by 9.6 million tonnes.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Ending stocks are already tight and traders see the weather since August 1st as a reason to suspect that this may be the high yield estimate of the year. With the possibility of higher exports and lower production ahead, look for the uptrend to continue. With high wheat and soybean prices, look for December 2011 corn to also see a solid uptrend ahead. Look for solid support for December corn near 409 with 451 1/2 and 493 as upside objectives. Use 492 as upside objective for Dec11 corn. 

Wheat

The USDA’s supply and demand and Crop Production reports were considered bullish this morning with the opening call 10-15 cents higher in wheat. US production was raised above trade expectations with the all-wheat total at 2.265 billion bushels versus 2.216 billion on the July report. Expectations were for a rise of about 15 million bushels. However, exports were raised by 200 million bushels to 1.2 billion which resulted in a drop of 141 million bushels in 2010/11 US ending stocks to 952 million. This was about 10 million bushels below expectations. The overall US wheat yield was raised by a substantial 1 bushel per acre to 46.9 bushels per acre. Hard winter and hard spring wheat ending stocks saw substantial reductions, but soft red winter (Chicago) wheat stocks were raised to 179 million bushels from 162 million in July. On the world report, all eyes were on the Russian wheat number, and the USDA lowered its estimate by a larger than expected 8 million tonnes to 45.0 million. This compares to 53.0 million in July, 61.7 million last year and 63.7 million two years ago (2008/09). Kazakhstan was lowered to 11.5 million from 14.0 in July and Ukraine was lowered to 17.0 million from 20.0 million in July. In all, the producers of the former Soviet were lowered by nearly 13 1/2 million tonnes. The EU was lowered to 137.51 million from 141.82 in July. This resulted in an overall drop in world production to 645.73 million tonnes, from 661.07 last month. World ending stocks were lowered to 174.76 from 187.05 million last month.

PRICE OUTLOOK: World ending stocks and production numbers came in about as expected but traders expect further revisions lower next month and there are already concerns for winter wheat plantings in Russia. Look for importers to continue an aggressive buying program as well which should bring a test of at least 790 and maybe 808 for December wheat. Support is near 741 and 711.

Soybeans

The USDA Supply/Demand Report this morning was considered negative against expectations as the USDA boosted production more than expected. The market is called 3-5 higher. A yield of 44 bushels per acre as compared with 42.9 last month helped push soybean production to 3.433 billion bushels, about 75 million above trade expectations. A boost in demand due to strong China imports helped keep the ending stocks news just slightly negative as exports for the coming year were adjusted to 1.435 billion bushels, up 65 million from last month. Old crop ending stocks were pegged at 160 million bushels which was about as expected and ending stocks for the 2010/11 season were pegged at 360 million bushels which was unchanged from last month and about 40 million bushels above trade expectations. World ending stocks for the 2010/11 season are pegged at 64.7 million tonnes, down about 3 million from last months estimate but still up from 63.5 million last year and 43.9 million two years ago. This is a record high. Beginning stocks were lower and production was higher but demand was revised higher by more than 3 million tonnes. The demand numbers are strong and traders will question the high yield forecast given hot weather so far in August.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The report was considered slightly negative against expectations but the market is called higher due to wheat and corn numbers. November soybean resistance begins at 1027 and 1031 with support at 1005. Use 1062 as next upside objective.

SOYBEANS

The USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand Report this morning was considered neutral to slightly supportive for the soybean complex with the market called steady to slightly higher on the open. The USDA pegged the 2009/10 soybean yield at 42.3 bushels per acre versus 41.7 last month and trade expectations near 42.3. US production was pegged at 3.245 billion bushels as compared with trade expectations near 3.25 billion and last months USDA estimate at 3.199 billion. US ending stocks for the 2009/2010 season were pegged at 220 million bushels as compared with last months estimate of 210 million bushels and trade expectations near 225 million. Old crop ending stocks were at 110 million which was unchanged from last month and up from expectations but is still the lowest since 1976/77. The USDA raised demand numbers for new crop with crush up 20 million bushels to 1.69 billion and exports up 15 million bushels to 1.28 billion bushels. The USDA raised China import demand slightly. World ending stocks were pegged at 50.53 million tonnes compared to 50.32 in August and 51.83 in July.

PRICE OUTLOOK: A lack of bearish news on the supply front and an adjustment higher in both export and crush demand is supportive. Close-in support for November soybeans is 925 3/4 with 951 1/4 as first good resistance.

CORN

The USDA Supply/Demand report was considered slightly supportive for corn with the market called 2 cents higher. The USDA pegged 2009/10 US corn yield at 161.9 bushels per acre versus 159.5 bushels per acre on the August report. Traders were looking for a yield number near 161.4. Total production was pegged at 12.955 billion bushels compared to 12.761 billion bushels in August and right on the trade estimates ahead of the report. Corn ending stocks for 2009/10 were pegged at 1.635 billion bushels compared to last month’s estimate of 1.621 billion and trade expectations near 1.77 billion bushels. While supply was about as expected, the USDA raised feed usage by 50 million bushels and exports by 100 million bushels. This pushed total usage to 13.025 billion bushels from 12.045 billion last year and 12.737 billion two years ago. World ending stocks were pegged at 139.1 million tonnes from 141.5 million last month and 144.7 million last year.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The report offered no new surprises from a supply perspective but the jump in demand helped hold ending stocks well under trade expectations to help support. The market is operating under the positive influence of the September 8th reversal and the report may support a bounce to 330 1/4 with close-in support at 312 for December corn.

WHEAT

The USDA’s August Supply/Demand and World Production reports were considered neutral to positive for wheat with the opening call steady to 3 cents higher. US numbers were all left unchanged from the August Supply/Demand, including the spring wheat number. Ending stocks for all wheat were left unchanged at 743 million bushels as compared with trade expectations for a jump of near 30 million bushels. Spring wheat production was unchanged at 511 million bushels. In contrast to the unchanged US numbers, world wheat production was increased to 663.72 million tonnes versus 659.29 in August. World ending stocks were increased by a similar amount to 186.61 million tonnes versus 183.56 last month. Australia, Argentina and Canada wheat production numbers were all left unchanged, while the EU-27 was raised by over 2 million tonnes to account for most of the gain in ending stocks.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Traders have been focusing on increased world wheat supplies rather than the US spring wheat crop in recent days and today’s report confirmed the market’s concerns over the world supply. While the wheat market could see a bounce after today’s report, this is likely to be a selling opportunity unless the lower dollar brings a substantial and fairly immediate increase in export demand.

CORN:

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 757,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 577,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,334,700.

Cumulative corn sales stand at 101.6% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 98.3%.

WHEAT:

Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 342,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 342,300.

For wheat, cumulative sales stand at 22.7% of the USDA forecast for 2009/2010 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 31.0%. Sales of 426,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

SOY COMPLEX:

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 320,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 382,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 702,000.

As of July 16, cumulative soybean sales stand at 101.4% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 99.9%.

Meal sales came in at 157,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 35,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 192,700.

Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 85.2% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 82.9%. Sales of 110,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Soybean oil sales came in at 17,500 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and -6,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 11,500.

Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 79.7% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 94.4%. Sales of 19,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON:

Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at -1,500 running bales for the current marketing year and 51,200 for the next marketing year for a total of 49,700.

Cumulative cotton sales stand at 106.7% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 111.1%.

BEEF:

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending July 16 came in at 9,000 metric tonnes making it 292,500 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 21,900 metric tonnes and 346,900 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 540,700 metric tonnes.

CORN:

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 1,225,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 116,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,341,200.

As of April 23, cumulative corn sales stand at 86.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 82.1%. Sales of 312,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

WHEAT:

Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 142,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 108,800 for the next marketing year for a total of 251,200.

As of April 23, cumulative wheat sales stand at 97.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 96.4%. Sales of 107,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

SOY COMPLEX:

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 834,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 335,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,170,100.

As of April 23, cumulative soybean sales stand at 96.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 92.6%. Sales of 61,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 293,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 100 for the next marketing year for a total of 293,100.

Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 71.9% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 69.4%. Sales of 94,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at 31,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 36,600. Sales stand at 84.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 87.2%. Sales of 5,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON:

Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at 212,300 running bales for the current marketing year and 53,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 266,200.

As of April 23, cumulative cotton sales stand at 103.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 94.8%.

BEEF:

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending April 23 came in at 6,200 metric tonnes making it 190,800 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 7,800 metric tonnes and 219,200 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 334,200 metric tonnes.

CORN:

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 440,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 440,600.

As of March 12, cumulative corn sales stand at 70.7% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 72.1%. Sales of 512,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

WHEAT:

Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 213,800 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 22,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 235,800.

As of March 12, cumulative wheat sales stand at 93.2% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 89.7%. Sales of 159,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

SOY COMPLEX:

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 143,300 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 196,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 339,800.

As of March 12, cumulative soybean sales stand at 87.0% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 87.6%. Sales of 169,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 33,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 40,800 for the next marketing year for a total of 74,200.

As of March 12, cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 60.0% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 61.3%. Sales of 106,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at -8,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of -8,000.

As of March 12, cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 58.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 77.9%. Sales of 10,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON:

Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at 204,200 running bales for the current marketing year and 5,400 for the next marketing year for a total of 209,600.

As of March 12, cumulative cotton sales stand at 93.6% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 80.5%. Sales of 36,000 running bales are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

BEEF:

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending March 12 came in at 13,300 metric tonnes making it 147,300 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 12,300 metric tonnes and 162,700 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 251,800 metric tonnes.

CORN:

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 1,107,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 200 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,107,900.

As of January 22, cumulative corn sales stand at 53.3% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 60.1%. Sales of 654,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

WHEAT:

Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 23,500 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and -80,000 for the next marketing year for a total of -56,500.

As of January 22, cumulative wheat sales stand at 82.1% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 80.1%. Sales of 264,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

SOY COMPLEX:

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 526,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 6,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 532,200.

As of January 22, cumulative soybean sales stand at 80.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 77.1%. Sales of 184,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 201,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 201,700.

Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 47.4% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 52.7%. Sales of 112,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at 21,500 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and none for the next marketing year for a total of 21,500.

Cumulative soybean oil sales stand at 32.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 61.0%. Sales of 15,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON:

Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at 107,200 running bales for the current marketing year and 6,600 for the next marketing year for a total of 113,800.

As of January 22, cumulative cotton sales stand at 76.9% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 66.6%. Sales of 95,000 running bales are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

BEEF:

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending January 22 came in at 7,800 metric tonnes making it 74,100 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 30,100 metric tonnes and 109,800 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 139,500 metric tonnes.

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EIA crude stocks rose 1.2 million barrels and are now 39.463 million barrels above year ago stock levels. Also, EIA crude stocks stand 20.9 million barrels above the 16 year average. Over the last 4 weeks, crude stocks are up a combined 5.274 million barrels. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 9.729 million barrels per day compared to 10.485 million barrels per day the previous week. The refinery operating rate stood at 85.23% up 0.66 from last week and compared to last year’s rate of 85.23% and the 5yr average rate of 88.8%. Total product demand over the past 4 weeks was down 4% compared to year ago.

EIA distillate stocks rose 6.346 million barrels and stand at 14.3 million barrels above last year’s level. Distillate demand stood at 3.654 million barrels per day compared to 4.318 million barrels per day the previous week and 562,000 barrels per day below year ago. Heating oil stocks rose 363,000 barrels and stand at 40.624 million barrels, which leaves stocks 4.318 above year ago. Distillate demand over the past 4 weeks was down 2.4% compared to year ago.

EIA gasoline stocks rose 2.1 million barrels and are now 1.250 million barrels above the 16 year average. Compared to year ago levels, gasoline stocks are at a 1.751 million barrel deficit. The net change in gas stocks over the last 4 weeks has been a rise of 9.55 million barrels. Gas demand stood at 8.758 million barrels per day which is 358,000 barrels per day below year ago. Gasoline imports came in at 797,000 barrels per day compared to 852,000 barrels per day the previous week. Gasoline demand over the past 4 weeks was down 2.1% compared to year ago.

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