The Hightower Report

CORN:

Net weekly export sales for corn, came in at 1,225,200 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 116,000 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,341,200.

As of April 23, cumulative corn sales stand at 86.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 82.1%. Sales of 312,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

WHEAT:

Net weekly export sales for wheat, came in at 142,400 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 108,800 for the next marketing year for a total of 251,200.

As of April 23, cumulative wheat sales stand at 97.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 96.4%. Sales of 107,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

SOY COMPLEX:

Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 834,600 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 335,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 1,170,100.

As of April 23, cumulative soybean sales stand at 96.5% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 92.6%. Sales of 61,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net meal sales came in at 293,000 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 100 for the next marketing year for a total of 293,100.

Cumulative soybean meal sales stand at 71.9% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 69.4%. Sales of 94,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

Net oil sales came in at 31,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 36,600. Sales stand at 84.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 87.2%. Sales of 5,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.

COTTON:

Net weekly export sales for cotton, came in at 212,300 running bales for the current marketing year and 53,900 for the next marketing year for a total of 266,200.

As of April 23, cumulative cotton sales stand at 103.8% of the USDA forecast for 2008/2009 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 94.8%.

BEEF:

Weekly US beef export sales for the week ending April 23 came in at 6,200 metric tonnes making it 190,800 metric tonnes for the year. This compares to year ago weekly sales of 7,800 metric tonnes and 219,200 for the year. Before Mad Cow (2003) cumulative sales as of this week were 334,200 metric tonnes.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Traders said that wheat was a follower of the sharply higher soybean market yesterday, and this continued overnight. A lower dollar and sharply higher equities were cited as a major supportive factor yesterday as was a wave of heavy buying by funds. Weather is also thought to have shifted to the supportive side with delayed fieldwork reported on the Canadian Plains along with the ongoing delays in spring wheat in the northern Plains of the US. Dry and cool weather in Russia is also causing delays with dry conditions also a potential problem in neighboring Ukraine. This is balanced against a more favorable crop outlook in the southern Plains of the US where rain is forecast through the middle of next week. The big improvement in soil moisture seen in SE Australia over the past week was also considered beneficial. Yesterday, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange projected this year’s planted area for wheat in Argentina at 3.7 million hectares compared to 4.55 million last year. An ongoing drought and difficulty obtaining financing are blamed for the reduced area. Planting normally gets underway in Argentina at the beginning of May. Today is first notice day against May futures contracts. Wheat deliveries were heavier than expected at 8,122 contracts. The USDA will release its latest weekly Export Sales Report this morning. Traders are looking for a number in line with last week to a bit higher.

CASH NEWS AND TENDERS: Japan is in the market for 156,000 tonnes of wheat this week on its regular tender. The biggest feedmaker in South Korea is looking to buy 55,000 tonnes of wheat for September-November delivery. An Israeli consortium is in the market for 30,000 tonnes of wheat. Iraq has announced a tender for 50,000 tonnes of wheat from any origin.

WEATHER: The US weather forecast is much the same as yesterday. Rains are expected across a wide swath of the Midwest today with locally heavy amounts of 1-2 inches. This should be focused tomorrow along a band running from Missouri through Illinois and Indiana into northern Ohio. The southern Midwest may see further rains on Sunday with a back-and-forth rain system hitting much of the Midwest from Monday through at least the middle of next week. Rain and snow is expected in the northern Plains today with rains also hitting the central and SE Plains. The northern Plains should then clear with the southern Plains getting coverage on-and-off into the middle of next week.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Wheat was a follower of the much stronger action in soybeans and corn yesterday and it may continue in this role today. Weather remains mixed with the southern Plains still expecting beneficial rains this week while planting delays in Canada and the northern US Plains and dryness in Russia and Ukraine are a concern. That may leave the recently weaker dollar as the main market factor in wheat. First support is at 527 to 528 in the July contract. Next support is at 515. Resistance is near 542, 552 and 558.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Corn traded higher yesterday and made a surge into new highs from late morning through the close. Traders indicate that this came on heavy buying by funds amid light farmer selling and strong export demand for corn. Hanging over it all is this week’s wet weather forecast for much of the Midwest with more of the same expected on and off during at least the first half of next week. The system that is currently moving through the Midwest is comprised of showers and storms that could produce as little as 1/4 inch and locally heavier amounts of 1-3 inches. All of this is expected to slow planting and fieldwork in corn through next week. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange released its latest weekly crop estimates yesterday. They pegged the corn crop at 13.0 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous week despite a sharp drop in their soybean estimate. Light rain is expected in southern Russia and parts of Ukraine this week. This would be welcome as the area is dry and the combination of cool weather and dryness is causing some planting delays in Russia. Today is first notice day against May futures contracts. Corn deliveries were 431 contracts, about in line with trade expectations. The USDA will release its latest Export Sales Report this morning. Traders are looking for a number near 1 million tonnes in corn.

WEATHER: The US weather forecast is much the same as yesterday. Rains are expected across a wide swath of the Midwest today with locally heavy amounts of 1-3 inches. This should be focused tomorrow along a band running from Missouri through Illinois and Indiana into northern Ohio. The southern Midwest may see further rains on Sunday with a back-and-forth rain system hitting much of the Midwest from Monday through at least the middle of next week. Rain and snow is expected in the northern Plains today with rains also hitting the central and SE Plains. The northern Plains should then clear with the southern Plains getting coverage on-and-off into the middle of next week.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The most important question before the market as we approach the end of the week is, what will farmers do now that we are at or above $4 in old crop futures contracts and a number of local cash markets? In late March and early April, the $4 area attracted increased farmer selling nearly every time that the market pushed above that level. However, the month of May is shaping up differently. First, there does not seem to be a consensus about selling at this level as there was leading up the March highs. Second, farmers are busy with planting, fieldwork, and myriad other activities associated with the planting season. Wet weather may keep them indoors at times, but it is not the same as late winter. On the demand side, export sales have been very strong and we will see the latest numbers this morning. China has been sidelined from the corn export business for more than a year, and Argentina may also be sidelined if the corn crop they are currently harvesting drops much below 12.0 million tonnes as seems likely. This leaves the US with limited competition for now. The result may be that the July contract will push through the band of resistance running up to near 415. First support is at 395 in the July contract. First resistance is at 406 to 408 1/2 with the next resistance at 415.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Soybeans went on a tear yesterday and that continued overnight. Traders indicate that the recent drop in the dollar and a sharp downward revision in the Argentine soybean crop by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange yesterday have replaced fears of Chinese cancellation of soybean purchases. It also seems to have superseded concerns over the swine flu outbreak. Traders and analysts say that the market is taking a wait-and-see attitude with regard to the outbreak, and one analyst pointed out the mixed messages that the market is hearing about the outbreak. On the one hand, the virus is spreading to more and more countries, confirming fears about how communicable it is. On the other hand, health experts say that the US has ample supplies of antiviral and antibacterial drugs to fight the disease and the infections that it may cause in sick people. Some experts are also indicating that this virus is less virulent than the bird flu virus. Yesterday, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange sharply lowered its estimate of this year’s soybean crop to just 34 million tonnes versus last week’s estimate of 36.2 million. This was considered very supportive, and funds were heavy buyers in soybeans and meal yesterday to help power the price advance. Brazil’s ambassador to Malaysia said yesterday that his country can continue to expand palm oil production on 3.5 million hectares of open land near the Amazon rainforest. The USDA announced a sale of 100,000 tonnes of US soybeans to an unknown destination for 2009/10 delivery and some traders believed the buyer to be China. The USDA will release its weekly export sales numbers this morning and traders are looking for up to 1 million tonnes of soybean sales. Today is first notice day for deliveries against May futures contracts. Soybeans deliveries were 89 contracts, Meal deliveries were zero and oil deliveries were 4,800 contracts. Oil was near the high end of the range of trade expectations. Meal was in line. Some traders had been looking for zero deliveries in soybeans, but today’s number is still about in line with expectations.

WEATHER: The US weather forecast is much the same as yesterday. Rains are expected across a wide swath of the Midwest today with locally heavy amounts of 1-2 inches. This should be focused tomorrow along a band running from Missouri through Illinois and Indiana into northern Ohio. The southern Midwest may see further rains on Sunday with a back-and-forth rain system hitting much of the Midwest from Monday through at least the middle of next week. Rain and snow is expected in the northern Plains today with rains also hitting the central and SE Plains. The northern Plains should then clear with the southern Plains getting coverage on-and-off into the middle of next week.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Concerns over possible cancellations of soybean sales to China on Tuesday were mostly forgotten on Wednesday as funds poured into all of the grain markets. Bullish sentiment was bolstered by a sharply reduced estimate of the Argentine soybean crop by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange, and a 100,000 tonne sale to unknown destinations yesterday that was widely believed to be to China. A lower dollar and higher equities were also supportive. Export sales will be out this morning and that may give us added insight to the China situation, but the focus of the market should remain on the world’s shrinking marketable surplus of soybeans unless the swine flu outbreak takes a dramatic turn for the worse. Yesterday may have reignited the rally in open interest that has carried the soybean market higher since early March. First support is at 1011 1/2 in July soybeans this morning with the next support at 1001 1/2. Resistance is at 1050 and at 1064 1/2.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar is clearly losing a portion of the flight to quality support which seemed to be lifting the Dollar ahead of the Tuesday highs. Some players thought that the Dollar was being undermined because of its proximity to Mexico, while others suggested that non Dollar currencies simply looked cheap in the event that the swine flu situation was set to be contained or even temporarily controlled. With some slightly favorable Euro zone economic readings released overnight and modest gains in European equity shares this morning, the Dollar might remain under light liquidation pressure in the trade today. Near term downside targeting in the June Dollar index is seen at 84.63 and then again down at 84.46. In looking ahead to the US data flow today, the market is generally expecting a negative GDP reading from the US but if the number is not as weak as expected, that might temper some of the residual selling pressure on the Dollar. There is also an FOMC meeting statement later today, but since the Fed seems to have run out of typical easing tools, the trade isn’t expecting anything surprising from the Fed window. Therefore, seeing a mostly uneventful trading session today, could favor the bear camp in the Dollar.

EURO: With a quasi range up extension in the Euro this morning and that action following a somewhat impressive afternoon recovery in the prior trading session, the Euro looks to be poised to carve out even more gains. In fact, seeing a Euro zone Business and Consumer confidence reading improve overnight, would seem to leave the bull camp in control of the Euro today. To a large degree, the Euro is seeing short covering buying, but the Euro is also seen as an undervalued currency in the event that the swine flu situation is temporarily reigned in. While the June Euro looks to be bullishly poised on the charts today, it will run into a two month old down trend channel resistance line at 133.35 today and at 133.20 on Thursday.

YEN: Like the Dollar, the Yen is seeing flight to quality long liquidation. With a holiday in Japan today, one might have expected a narrower overnight trading range but instead the market has seen a noted downside extension on the charts. To extract the swine flu component (it is still unclear if that is justified yet) the June Yen would have to fall back below 102.97. In the event that swine flu is actually coming under control and global equity markets show further strength, we suspect that the June Yen will see a further decline back down to the middle of a 102.50 to 101.28 trading range.

SWISS: For some reason the Swiss, Euro, Canadian and Pound came under distinct pressure in the face of severe economic slowing fears and therefore seeing the Swiss bounce in the face of “hope” that the economy continues to recover is not that surprising. With critical down trend channel resistance seen at 88.03 and the June Swiss sitting right on that level in the early going today, it is possible that we will see a quasi upside breakout in the trade today.

POUND: With a range up extension in the June Pound this morning and favorable leadership being seen in global equity prices, it would appear that the recovery currencies (Pound and Canadian) are due for a near term lift at the expense of the US Dollar and the Yen. The Pound is also being supported by a favorable government debt auction in the prior session and also from favorable scheduled UK data flow from the CBI. In fact, favorable retail sales indications and the favorable technical action on the Pound charts would seem to project the June Pound up to the 148.72 level.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: A big range up extension in the June Canadian Dollar and similar strength in the Pound overnight looks to give the bull camp an edge in the action today. While some Canadian numbers might dull the bullish bias, there would seem to be little overall resistance in the June Canadian until the 83.28 level, especially if the swine flu situation becomes less of an issue throughout the trade today.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Improving sentiment puts the Dollar and Yen into a retreat versus the Euro, Swiss, Pound and Canadian.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

The performance in the stock market in the face of the swine flu situation is rather impressive, as many market measures were able to respect up trend channel support, despite some rather disconcerting economic fears. In fact, given the wholesale washout in a host of travel, leisure and cyclical stocks this week, the overall broad measures of stock prices have still managed to find support from other sectors. In fact, the market even seemed to garner some support from news that US home price declines seemed to be slowing their rate of deterioration. While some players might suggest that the market is failing to register the damage already being seen off the swine flu situation, we would suggest that the markets resilience is a telling sign of which way the market wants to head and that without a sustained swine flu drag, prices are likely to claw their way higher again. However, the rate of expansion in swine flu is still a major hurdle for the markets, but without some deaths in the US or a quickening of the number of fresh cases of swine flu, we think that the 850 level in the S&P and the 8,000 level in Dow will continue to be fairly important support.

S&P 500: Initial resistance in the June S&P is seen at 865.50 today and then again up at 868.50 in the event that the market sees anything favorable from the US GDP report or from the swine flu front. Up trend channel support in the June S&P is seen at 842.10 today and then again at 845.35 on Thursday. The bulls have the edge but that edge doesn’t look to be definitive.

DOW: In addition to shaking off the initial swine flu threat, the Mini Dow with a minor pulse up move today could find itself within striking distance of the April highs. Certainly seeing IBM raise its dividend and seeing other blue chip stocks consider raising their dividends is a confidence builder and to a degree that serves to countervail the recent capital problems at Citi and Bank of America. However, as one analyst noted this morning, at least one major financial company went to the market to raise capital recently and that offering was met with strong demand. Without a fresh and damaging shift in the swine flu situation, the path of least resistance in the Mini Dow looks to be pointing upward today, with initial resistance today pegged at 8,082 and then again up at 8,119.

NASDAQ: The June Nasdaq continues to respect up trend channel support on the charts, despite all the potentially devastating threats surfacing this week. In fact, the June Nasdaq seems to be poised to retest the April highs of 1384, which in turn are the highest levels since November 4th. Apparently tech sector stocks look to remain in favor, regardless of the broad based slowing threats that have surfaced in earnest again this week. Up trend channel support is now seen at 1352.80 today and then again up at 1361.50 on Thursday.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The bulls hope for a lull in fresh swine flu news and perhaps some players were hoping for something positive from the US FOMC statement later in the trading session.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

Yesterday the Treasury market seemingly registered another wave of fear over upcoming supply flows. Better than expected data flow yesterday and a slight recovery in the US equity markets just ahead of mid session yesterday also provided a back drop for the slide to the lowest levels since March 4th in the June bond contract. The trade generally expects the second quarter refunding to be around $75 billion and a figure higher than that amount would not be surprising. In the face of a minor near term recovery in equity prices and or even the slightest lack of resolve for the 7 Year Note auction (of $26 billion) today could be just the ticket to send June Bonds down to the lowest level of the last six months. Therefore, initial support in the June bonds this morning is seen at the February 27th low of 123-04, with similar support in the Notes seen at 121-13.

We are not sure if the 1st quarter GDP reading will be that important, as that data is somewhat old now and the Treasury market is clearly looking forward. Surprisingly the Treasury market hasn’t seen the slightest sustained lift off the prospect of renewed and even more severe slowing off the swine flu situation. Perhaps the trade thinks that severe and sustained slowing off the swine flu situation would simply prompt the US government to borrow more and spend more. In the short term, the market will also be presented with an FOMC statement later today, but unless the swine flu situation is thought to become a major drag on the economy ahead, we doubt that the FOMC will bring out anything surprising. However, the Fed certainly sees the swine flu incident as a threat to the economy and some response from the Fed could be forth coming today, but the question is what type of move the Fed would try to implement especially given that they have already pulled out most of the well known “stops”. Economic information from the Euro zone overnight appears to be applying a slight bit of fresh pressure to Treasuries this morning, as the Euro zone business climate actually improved for the first time in 11 months. However, because Euro zone Confidence levels are still within relative proximity to record lows, the outlook for the global economy remains precarious. In the US a number of regional Fed readings have also shown improvement from prior readings but those numbers also remain deep in negative territory and that also shows the global economy is still very suspect.

With refunding news, an auction, an FOMC statement and swirling swine flu news, we suspect that volatility levels will remain high in the Treasury markets today. Given the negative bias in bond prices in the face of the swine flu development, it is clear that the bears retain control and even the slightest sign that swine flu is coming under control could be just the ticket to send both bonds and notes down to even lower trading ranges ahead. Near term critical resistance in June bonds today is seen at 123-26, with similar resistance in June notes today seen at 121-23.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

The swine virus which has killed near 100 in Mexico and is spread to the US and Canada has had a very negative impact on outside markets for cattle overnight and the cattle market is likely in a position to have to absorb significant new selling for at least today. Fears that the virus will cause a significant slowdown in the economy and that consumer demand for red meat will be lower; at least temporarily helped to pressure the market overnight. Weakness in beef prices on Friday and ideas that meat demand will slide this week are seen as bearish forces. June cattle saw two-sided trade with some concern that beef volume is slowing helping to limit the support on Friday. The market sold off sharply late in the session, threatening the April 20th low in the process. Talk that warmer weather could spark better retail clearance this weekend helped to provide some underlying support early, but a weaker tone to the beef market after the recent surge along with hefty deliveries late last week helped to limit the buying support. A $4.50 discount of June cattle to last week’s cash trade in Texas was seen as a factor to help support. However, the weekend news should be enough to case a short-term down in demand which could shift packer attitudes about paying up for live inventory. The estimated cattle slaughter came in at 115,000 head Friday and 24,000 head for Saturday. This was at the low end of estimates and could be seen as a negative signal for packer demand. This brings the total for last week to 640,000 head, up from 606,000 last week at this time but down from 702,000 a year ago. Boxed beef cutout values were down $1.39 at mid-session Friday and closed $1.48 lower at $151.94. This was up from $149.20 a week ago. The Commitment-of-Traders reports on Friday showed a slight selling trend from trend-following funds who shifted from a net long to a net short position of 68 contracts. The selling trend (sold a net 1,003 contracts for the week) is seen as a negative force. Index funds were light buyers. There were no deliveries this morning.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: With the discount of futures to cash, the swine flu impact may not be as great as in hogs but the demand concerns are likely to pressure the market early this week. With so many uncertainties ahead, long and short traders are likely to consider stepping aside and the initial break on concerns for reduced red meat consumption could be significant.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

Swine flu is spreading human to human and has spread from Mexico to the US and Canada and is likely to spread further. If in meat, it will be killed when cooking so pork consumption is not the real issue. Uncertainty and emotions, however, are factors which are likely to cause a major sell-off in hog prices this week. With the premium of June futures to the cash market already steep, the sell-off could gain momentum. China has already banned imports of pigs and pork from Mexico and from three US states. However, the concern now is that the human to human spread could be more significant and that the new strain which has still not been linked to any specific hog herd could spread quickly. On top of all of the pork related issues with the flu, there are concerns that more people will stay at home, eat less pork and less red meat in general and that the economy may contract. June hogs pushed higher early on Friday as the turn up in loin prices late last week gave traders a bit more confidence that packer margins could see some improvement this week. This did not last however, as the market gave up its gains in the afternoon and threatened Thursday’s low, which was also the low for the week, by the end of the session. The run-up in cash markets and the sell-off in pork product has pushed packer margins in the red. Some talk that wet weather in the western Corn Belt on the weekend could spark increased marketings early this week along with the June premium may have helped pressure the market in the end. The Commitment-of-Traders reports on Friday showed a slight selling trend from trend-following funds who increased their net short position to a whopping 17,390 contracts. Index funds were light buyers. The market is oversold. The CME Lean Hog Index as of April 22 came in at 61.10, up 85 cents from the previous session and up from 57.40 the week before. The estimated hogs slaughter came in at 412,000 head Friday and 34,000 head for Saturday. Slaughter was lower than expected and could be a sign of weak demand from the packer. This brings the total for last week to 2.145 million head, up from 2.122 million last week at this time but down from 2.248 million a year ago. Pork cut out values, released after the close Friday, came in at $59.28, down 50 cents from Thursday and down from $60.88 the previous week. Look for the market to see significant long liquidation selling early this week as emotions and outside market forces pressure.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: With pork cut-out values already showing signs of weakness last week and a ban on exports of pork to some areas of the world already announced, traders see the swine flu outbreak in Mexico as a very bearish short-term development. Not only will exports be banned to some locations, the perception that there is risk in consuming pork should add to the bearish short-term demand factors and this could spark additional selling pressures. Just as poultry consumption in Europe fell temporarily with bird flu, US pork consumption is likely to fall.

Below is a sample of our Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

While the cash market trend looks to remain up into May, it will be important to see higher pork cut-out values in the next few sessions or packers could begin to back away from the aggressive slaughter pace seen recently and this would be seen as a bearish development. Packer margins have shifted from positive to negative in the past week led by higher cash hog prices and a 3-day set-back in pork product prices. June hogs ended near unchanged on the session yesterday after choppy and two-sided trade. However, further weakness in pork helped drive the market lower overnight. Pork cut out values, released after the close yesterday, came in at $58.84, down $1.07 from Tuesday and down from $61.26 the previous week. Cash hogs were higher yesterday and are called higher again today but traders were unwilling to press the upside due to the premium of futures to the cash market and the weaker tone to pork cut-out values over the past few sessions. In addition, traders suspect that Iowa/Minnesota producers are active with fieldwork this week but will be active sellers in the cash market next week when heavy rain is in the forecast. The cold storage news was supportive this week but the market believes that much of the positive cash news is already priced. Weekly average weights for Iowa/Minnesota came in at 269 pounds which is down from 269.9 pounds last week but still up sharply from 265.6 pounds last year. The CME Lean Hog Index as of April 20 came in at 59.55, up 70 cents from the previous session and up from 56.72 the week before. The estimated hogs slaughter came in at 425,000 head yesterday. This brings the total for the week so far to 1.274 million head, up from 1.143 million last week at this time but down from 1.279 million a year ago. Feeder Pig imports from Canada for the week ending April 11 came in at 111,003 head, down from 112,934 head the previous week and compared to a 4-week moving average of 113,936. Total hog imports so far this year reached 1.95 million head which is down 39% from last year’s pace.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: While the cash trend is up, the break in pork cut-out values over the past three sessions does not give the bulls confidence that the cash trend will stay up. This confidence problem is an issue with June holding a stiff premium to the cash.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Support for June hogs comes in at 71.35 with resistance at 73.27 and 74.17.